Russia has moved 100,000 troops to the border, delivering a list of demands that NATO cannot possibly meet. But what does Vladimir Putin really want to achieve?
The fear of war has increased month by month this autumn. Russia has moved what appears to be an invading force right up to the border with Ukraine.
In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky went out and explained that they feared that a coup attempt with Russian help was underway. Now there are fears that Russian forces will invade the neighboring country.
– On the Ukrainian side, they fear a major offensive. Either the Russians are trying to take the whole country, or the whole eastern region, all the way to the Dnieper River, explains Russia expert Jakub M. Godzimirski at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI).
The Dnieper flows through the capital Kiev, among other places.
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FEAR OF WAR: The Ukrainian military fears invasion, and this weekend is training reserve forces near the capital Kiev. 1 of 2Photo: SERGEY DOLZHENKO / EPA
–The impossible list of requirements
On Friday, it was announced that Putin had promoted demands that NATO countries withdraw their forces from the countries bordering Russia, and stops all military aid to Ukraine.
The claims were handed over to the United States earlier this week, and were announced on Friday. They are presented in draft two new security agreements – one that the Russians will enter into with the United States, and one that they hope to get NATO into.
In that case, they demand that NATO reverse the 25-year military integration with the new member states in the east, and that the US presence in Europe be significantly reduced.
NATO sources have explained that it is it is not appropriate to be pressured into all the requirements to Putin, but at the same time it opens for negotiations.
Have you not seen the backdrop? Read these two cases:
Russia with new demands on NATO: This is how Putin wants to change Europe
Information for VG: This is how NATO will respond to Russia
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TRAINING UP: The Ukrainian military fears invasion, and this weekend is training up reserve forces near the capital Kiev. 1 of 2Photo: SERGEY DOLZHENKO / EPA
–Ready to face Russia
On Tuesday, the President of Ukraine said Volodomyr Zelensky that he is “ready to face Russia in any format”, adding that Ukraine is “ready to implement what we have agreed”.
The statement was a response to Putin’s telephone conversation with France’s Emmanuel Macron earlier that day.
He stated that the possibility of holding a new summit in the ‘Normandy format’ depends on the concrete steps of the Ukrainian authorities towards implementing the Minsk agreement.
The Normandy format is a platform consisting of Germany, Ukraine, France and Russia, which was set up to resolve the war in Donbass in eastern Ukraine.
After tough negotiations in February 2015, the countries agreed on a ceasefire, the establishment of a buffer zone, monitoring of the front and that Ukraine’s National Assembly should introduce autonomy for certain areas in Donetsk and Lugansk.
Feeling surrounded
Godzimirski says there are two views on why Russia is pushing so hard: One is that Russia is going very hard, to have something to go back on. The second is that Russia feels really threatened by Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU and NATO.
– Russia came up with a new security doctrine this summer, which is a lot about Russia having to respond to threats from the EU and NATO.
– Does Putin mean seriously, or is this something he does to show strength at home?
– It’s not good to say. Some believe that Russian foreign policy is only about diverting attention from political dissatisfaction and strengthening the regime’s legitimacy, by playing on the idea that Russia is surrounded and threatened by the West, Godzimirski says.
– But at the same time, Russia feels that they are losing influence over Ukraine. They have tried to pressure Zelenskyj to work more closely in the bilateral relationship, but have not succeeded, the researcher explains.
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SHOWS MUSCLES: Russian tanks fire during a military exercise this week, which admittedly took place far from the Ukrainian border. Annexation will be invasion
– Can one imagine that they move into a limited area, such as Luhansk and Donetsk, where pro-Russian separatists already have control?
– You do not need to use military force to control those areas. Russia already has de facto control.
– So you do not believe in a full annexation there, as was seen in the Crimea in 2014?
Then they would not have had to march 100,000 soldiers to the border. And if they enter Luhansk and Donetsk, it will still be an invasion of another country, with international condemnation as a consequence.
Therefore, Godzimirski believes that Putin has bigger goals.
– He probably hopes to pressure the West to make concessions. If you enter Ukraine itself with soldiers, you do not know how a war will develop.
If Russia suffers heavy losses and is hit by severe economic sanctions, then both will be unpopular at home.
– One must hope that a regime that is most concerned with its own stability finds other solutions than the military, the researcher concludes.
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