The situation at the moment is worrying, according to the OMT. We have seen waves of infection in the past two years, according to Van Dissel. The delta variant was the last to cause this. “There are still several tens of thousands of infections every day. The peak seems to be behind us, not least because of the measures that have been taken. But the occupation of the hospitals is still very high.”
Share of omikron is increasing rapidly
The same applies to the pressure in general practitioner care and in nursing homes. “The numbers are falling, but we’re not there yet,” said Van Dissel. And now there is suddenly the omikron variant. “That only accounts for a small part of the infections in the Netherlands. But the share will increase quickly due to the very rapid spread.”
Between Christmas and the turn of the year, the omikron variant will also be dominant in the Netherlands, Van Dissel expects:
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But there are also a lot of unknown factors, he said. The most important question, in light of the new corona measures, is: how sick can it make you? And that is still unclear. In the words of Van Dissel: “It may take some time before we have robust data on this.”
Big setback
The immune system that someone builds up through vaccination or a previous infection with the coronavirus can be circumvented by the new variant. So there is less protection against omikron. According to Van Dissel, the fact that the mutation ‘deviates too much’ from the virus with which the various vaccines were developed is a ‘big setback’.
It has now been shown that a booster vaccination helps. “So it is in itself very good news that it was already decided last week to accelerate that vaccination campaign very strongly.” Before January 7, all people over 18 must have been able to make an appointment for the extra shot.
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How many people will get a booster shot? How fast will the virus continue to spread? Due to all the uncertainty, the ‘modellings’ that RIVM uses on the figures and statistics that the new mutation has produced in the meantime strongly depend on assumptions, said Van Dissel, who is also head of infectious disease control at RIVM in addition to OMT chairman.
“If the numbers are mild, then it’s fine. But if it’s less optimistic and if you assume that omikron can make people sick in the same way, we see that the number of sick we will get is so high that it will be so high in the first wave in The Netherlands can transcend.”
Space and air for care
In any case, a stricter lockdown can ‘provide more space and give more air’ to healthcare, which ‘is still very much under pressure’, said Van Dissel. Tightening the measures ‘could slow the spread of omikron, so that we can prepare further and everyone can use the booster vaccination’.
“It can also happen sometimes,” he wanted to admit. “But we have not had that often with the coronavirus.”
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