© Associated Press
– Turkish drone “Bayraktar TV2” after landing on the territory of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Ankara.
The War of the Future “from movies where drones guide the course of conflict became a” war of the present “last year. In the midst of the pandemic, at least three cases confirmed this, all involving Turkish (though sometimes mixed with Israeli and Chinese) drones.
A few months later, Eastern Europe became the region where Turkey wants to develop new links in the business of drones. Turkey, which has built an entire industry in an attempt to circumvent the US refusal to provide technology, is increasingly offering it.
In at least one country in the region, Ukraine, they have already been used on the battlefield and angered Russian President Vladimir Putin. Another, in the European Union – Poland – officially signed a contract to buy from them. And production – both in Turkey and in Ukraine – continues to grow.
“Drone Diplomacy”
“Ukraine is using Turkish-made drones in the Donbas conflict zone as part of its destructive behavior,” Putin told Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan a week ago, according to the Kremlin. The drones turned out to be part of the conflict at a time when tens of thousands of Russian troops have gathered in areas near the Ukrainian border.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6NszbNKeyU
As Kiev officially owns Bayraktar drones (read more about their success here), Turkish Communications Director Fakhretin Altun did not hide that the topic was discussed between the presidents. Ankara’s official position is that it cannot be blamed if other countries have drones made by it. And according to Baykar CEO Haluk Bayraktar, a total of 13 countries are on the list.
This week, within a few days, Turkey first offered mediation between Russia and Ukraine (following Moscow’s comments on drones), and then announced that “a huge number of countries” in the European Union and NATO are interested in this Turkish defense product.
In his comments at a conference in Antalya, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu did not specify which specific country he means. According to him, representatives of other countries praised the Turkish defense industry on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO ministers in Riga. A special unit in the defense industry is likely to co-ordinate efforts on diplomacy and improving bilateral relations through co-operation on the subject.
Cavusoglu’s interest seems to be mainly in Bayraktar TV2, a machine sent in the first direct conflict between Turkey and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in March 2020 and inflicted heavy damage on the regime’s forces. In the meantime the same drones were sent to Libyato assist the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (PNC) in the war against the forces of Commander Khalifa Haftar. Later they helped Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
As a result, according to Cavusoglu, new orders have been placed for 2021. This approach has already been described in some publications as “drone diplomacy”.
It is not known if one of these countries is Britain, for which the Minister of Industry Mustafa Varank explain in October that she was interested in Turkish production.
In one of publications the example of Poland is given for “drone diplomacy”. In the summer, following a visit by Polish President Andrzej Duda to Ankara, the two countries announced not only a deal for 24 Bayraktar drones for Warsaw, but also the signing of four more agreements in other areas. This approach has already been seen in countries like Libya.
The key role of Ukraine
Earlier, in 2019, Turkey signed an agreement with Ukraine to supply 12 drones, and later set up a joint venture to produce 48 drones. Morocco, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Ethiopia have also ordered, but Ukraine has proved central to future plans to focus on Eastern Europe, and comments from Turkish state media have left the same impression.
Turkey has learned the hard way that it cannot trust its NATO partners to contain Russia, so Turkey has trusted its man: Selcuk Bayraktar (Baikar’s technical director), the brain behind the TV2 Bayraktar drone has become a symbol of Turkey’s position to limit Russia, ” write in an analysis for TRT, Yomer Ozkizilcik, an expert well acquainted with Turkey’s security and defense policy and observer of conflicts in Syria.
More about Erdogan’s son-in-law Selcuk Bayraktar and his role in the rise of drones read here.
For Ukraine, Ozkizilchik continues:
It is no coincidence that Bayraktar’s Baykar company is forming a joint venture with Ukraine named Black Sea Shield. Thanks to Turkish-Ukrainian cooperation, Turkey has produced the Akanci drone with even greater capabilities than proved in the TV2 Bayraktar battle. ”
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– It is also interesting which countries Yozkizilchik describes as potential buyers of drones. According to him, Eastern European countries such as Poland and Romania are closely following the Turkish model, following the Turkish model of establishing a “NATO-independent” alliance – from Ukraine to Azerbaijan and Libya (where Russia supported Haftar) to the Syrian opposition.
“It is therefore no coincidence that Poland has decided to buy TV2 Bayraktar drones. Hungary, Kazakhstan, Romania and the Baltic states are other potential candidates.”
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In fact, Hungary tries recently a drone of another defense company, “Vestel” – “Karayel”, as it is in service (in combat or surveillance) in the Turkish and Saudi armies.
The interest from Budapest and other Eastern European capitals remains to be confirmed, but Yozkizilcik’s analysis reveals Turkey’s unequivocal interest in new markets on NATO’s eastern flank.
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