Rutte IV: a new cabinet with an old crisis of confidence

‘Confidence in the future’ – that’s the name of the coalition agreement of the outgoing Rutte III cabinet. The working title of the coalition agreement of the approaching new cabinet will probably sound less confident. Maybe something like: ‘Working on trust, a matter of tackling it.’ Although that was also the title of the strategic agreement of the first Balkenende cabinet, of the CDA, LPF and VVD, which fell after 87 days. That cabinet also took office at a time when citizens’ confidence in politics was low. The tragic Balkenende cabinet wanted to radiate that it wanted to listen to the discontent.

The new Rutte cabinet will also have to deal with this if it – as expected – takes office in January. According to informants Johan Remkes and Wouter Koolmees, the four negotiating parties (VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie) want to present their coalition agreement before the Christmas recess. This means that the parliamentary groups must agree to it early next week, after which the House can debate that same week and designate Mark Rutte as formateur. After that, a restart of Rutte III is a fact.

Those involved make it clear that they are concerned. The current cabinet collapsed crisis of confidence between citizen and government: the Allowance Affair. The ensuing debate about the closed administrative culture poisoned mutual relations, also in the coalition. More than half of citizens have lost confidence in the caretaker cabinet, it showed research of I&O Research commissioned by NRC.

Worries about declining support

The support for government policy in the corona crisis has been published, according to Friday research by the RIVM and the GGDs, hit its lowest point since the start of the pandemic. Only 16 percent of citizens are positive about the policy, and 46 percent are negative.

The negotiating parties are aware of this context and are concerned about it. If it stays in place, the new cabinet will have to deal with three parliamentary surveys that touch on the relationship between politics and citizens: the allowances, corona and gas extraction in Groningen.

Mark Rutte tries to emphasize the break above the continuity. He said a few weeks ago that a new cabinet should “really become a different cabinet”, “with a different look” and “more elan”. When he came under fire in the House about the so-called memorandum ‘function elsewhere’ surrounding Pieter Omtzigt, and D66 threatened to drop out as a coalition partner, Rutte formulated seven ‘radical new ideas’ to change the administrative culture. In short, it came down to this: more openness, more politics. So no more boarded-up coalition agreements, but dualism between cabinet and House, and clashing views of the world between the parties themselves.

Also read: Mark Rutte’s seven intentions

So far, not many of those ideas have materialized. The four parties are negotiating behind closed doors, without the outside world having any insight into the progress.

Few new names

In D66 circles, the possibility is taken into account that Ernst Kuipers, of the National Acute Care Network, will go to VWS on behalf of that party as a minister. But many face-determining politicians are the same as in the previous period. Although positions are sometimes shifted, as seems to be the case with D66 member Hans Vijlbrief. Now he is the outgoing State Secretary for Finance, and soon, according to insiders, a minister in the same department.

It may make a difference whether the political leaders choose to sit in the House of Representatives or in the cabinet. As party leader, leaders of coalition parties can often afford more than when they are in the cabinet, such as Frits Bolkestein during Purple I (1994-1998). It is known that Mark Rutte and Wopke Hoekstra (CDA) prefer to remain in the cabinet. A new ministerial position for Sigrid Kaag (D66) is also possible. According to insiders, she would again become Minister of Foreign Affairs. Then only Gert-Jan Segers (ChristenUnie) would remain as political leader in the House. Unless one of them relinquishes the party leadership. But for a prime minister it is nice to have political rivals around him in the cabinet, instead of a free role in the House.

The coalition agreement then, will that be different? At the beginning of October, the informants and the negotiators still planned to do things very differently with this coalition agreement. In order to create “more distance” between the cabinet and the governing parties, Johan Remkes said at a press conference, the negotiators would come to a “concise” agreement, after which the candidate ministers would “further elaborate” in a “government program”.

Remkes already thought that creating more distance would not happen by itself. “This requires a change in the thinking of the parties.” And: “You have to invest in good mutual relationships and mutual trust.”

In the course of the conversations, according to insiders, it turned out that everything could not be written down concisely at all. The mutual trust among the negotiators was not so great that they dared to leave complicated subjects to a minister. Which probably also came under pressure from officials and lobby clubs. Because imagine: after the presentation of the coalition agreement, the ministers would sit together for a week or two for the government program, with many journalists on the doorstep. That was the moment for anyone who still wanted to exert influence to pull out all the stops for extra money for something, or a different accent in policy.

In private, this was increasingly seen as a risk to the stability of the newly appointed cabinet and after the extremely difficult formation, the longest ever, no one among the four parties is waiting for a rapid fall.

Last week it became clear: things will go back to normal. With a normal coalition agreement – ​​although the intention is that it will be less thick than last time. The ministers are then allowed to come up with all kinds of ideas about implementation, possibly in so-called ‘policy letters’. And they can probably afford a little more freedom in that than before. It will not escape the notice of officials and lobbyists.

When his third cabinet took office, Mark Rutte promised citizens “a very ordinary cabinet”. Now he has to emphasize the unusual, without there being any indication that everything is really changing.

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