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With the exception of the match between Atalanta Bergamo and Villarreal which is to be played this evening at 7 p.m., all the qualifiers are known for the rest of the competition in the Champions League. Very quickly, the clubs will be able to look to the future since the draw for the competition will take place no later than Monday noon in Nyon.
In the meantime, what are the odds of this draw? This is the work done by the mathematician Julien Guyon, forced to take into account two scenarios: the qualification of Atalanta and that of Villarreal. On the side of PSG, we also risk hoping for Italian success. Indeed, if Atalanta qualifies for the next round, Juventus is the most likely contender for the Parisians (22.04% chance). If Villarreal passes, it is Real Madrid who becomes the favorite opponent by a short head, with 19.36% to see a shock that would be particularly attractive in view of the Mbappé file …
Chelsea threatens the Mastiffs
On the side of Lille, a trend is emerging very clearly in view of the number of English contenders in the first hat (Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United). Chelsea, whatever the scenario of Atalanta – Villarreal, is the most likely opponent for the Mastiffs. But Chelsea are also a very likely opponent for … Real Madrid, while a clash between Juventus and Atlético Madrid also has a good chance of materializing.
Here are the exact #draw #probabilities for the round of 16 of the #ChampionsLeague if Villarreal advances. Chelsea-Real most likely matchup; Benfica-Ajax, Sporting-Bayern least likely @lequipedusoir @RMCsport @FourFourTwo @ManuBojan pic.twitter.com/vbe436xIpH
– Julien Guyon (@ julienguyon1977) December 8, 2021
Here are the EXACT #draw #probabilities for the round of 16 of the #ChampionsLeague if Atalanta advances. Chelsea-Real most likely matchup; Benfica-Ajax, Sporting-Bayern least likely @lequipedusoir @RMCsport @FourFourTwo @ManuBojan @AfterRMC pic.twitter.com/LSpqMNZntv
– Julien Guyon (@ julienguyon1977) December 8, 2021
to summarize
Now that the qualifiers are almost all known for the knockout stages of the Champions League, the time to consider the draw has come. For PSG, a qualification of Atalanta Bergamo would do its business seriously.
