“In a year-on-year comparison, all sections of the consumer basket contributed to headline inflation in November, with a few exceptions. Transport increased in price, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, catering and recreation and culture services and services in general were also more expensive. The contribution of housing-related costs after the exclusion of energy prices was again significant, “said Miroslav Novák, an analyst at Akcenta, who expects year-on-year inflation of 6.2 percent.
–
“The strongest contributions to higher year-on-year inflation probably came from accelerating food and fuel price growth, which in the latter case will be almost a third higher,” said UniCredit Bank analyst Patrik Rožumberský, who expects 6.4 percent inflation in November.
–
However, according to Novák, the extraordinary factors associated with electricity and gas prices make it significantly more difficult.
–
“The first factor is the forced transition of some households to significantly more expensive energy to suppliers of last resort. The second factor is the government’s decision to temporarily waive VAT on electricity and gas in the last two months of this year. November inflation thus has room for surprises, both ways, “he added.
–
According to Raiffeisenbank analyst David Vagenknecht, energy also brings uncertainty to the November price development. “On the one hand, their increase and thus headline inflation will dampen the government’s decision to waive VAT payments on electricity and gas for November to December. However, the question is whether the measures will be fully reflected in the November and December price lists, or even retrospectively, “he said.
–
“On the other hand, inflation will be increased by significantly higher energy bills for households, which were forced to temporarily switch to suppliers of last resort, often at several times higher prices,” he added.
–
According to Rožumberský, however, in the case of energy, the temporary reduction in VAT on electricity and natural gas outweighed it. “The entire housing group was thus able to alleviate the increase in annual inflation by half a percentage point,” he said. Rožumberský expects year-on-year inflation at 6.1 percent in November.
–
“The growth rate of consumer prices remains elevated and November is unlikely to bring about a significant change,” added Michal Brožka, an economist at Komerční banka. However, thanks to the waiver of VAT payments for energy, a relatively small month-on-month rise in consumer prices awaits, which, according to him, should keep annual inflation just below six percent.
—
