The crisis management mechanism launched by NATO must be perceived as a signal to the countries unfriendly to the alliance, said Mārtiņš Vargulis, a researcher at the Latvian Institute of Foreign Policy (LAI).
He said elements of NATO’s crisis management mechanism were being triggered as needed. These can be the strengthening of intelligence, the deployment of forces or their mobilization. It is largely within the Alliance for Preparedness.
According to the researcher, this is a signal to a potential adversary that NATO sees what is happening, is aware of its actions and is preparing for it, and if any actions or activities follow from the adversary, the Alliance’s prepared actions could follow.
Speaking about the last meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Riga, where the allies expressed strong support for Ukraine and gave a clear message to Russia, if it invaded Ukraine, it would have to pay a high price and face political and economic consequences, Vargulis emphasized .
“The public message about Ukraine was strong and unequivocal. The participation of the Ukrainian Foreign Minister in the meeting strengthens the close cooperation and partnership between NATO and Ukraine to some extent. expert.
He pointed out that it is currently difficult to predict exactly what the political or economic response will be, as all communication is an attempt to deter Russia from engaging in any activity. The expert also called for taking into account that the size of Russia’s forces, which are currently at Ukraine’s borders, is significant in terms of both numbers and capabilities. These are high-end and state-of-the-art capabilities in Russia’s arsenal, which may indicate a large-scale potential action against Ukraine.
Speaking about Russia’s possible response to the position expressed by NATO foreign ministers, Vargulis emphasized that it was suspicious, knowing that NATO was sending a clear signal. According to the expert, Russia does not currently think that NATO could engage in direct military action, because Ukraine is not a member of NATO. However, it cannot be ruled out that if the situation escalates and some kind of aggression against Ukraine occurs, NATO will provide support, for example through financial or deployment capabilities. According to Vargulis, Russia is aware of this, but no one has the illusion that NATO as an alliance will engage in any kind of military action.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had indicated that Russia would insist on dialogue with the United States and NATO to develop firm agreements that would preclude further NATO expansion to the east. Asked whether Russia perceives NATO enlargement as a kind of threat, the expert answered in the affirmative, adding that such a position, which has been strengthened during Putin’s presidency, is an existing unit of Russia’s foreign and security policy.
“Russia would like a written agreement to be reached at such or similar events, such as the NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting or the forthcoming NATO summit in Madrid next year, that Ukraine and Georgia cannot or will never become members of NATO. Russia sees enlargement as a “This is due to the fact that in the geopolitical game, countries choose to join the alliance rather than the cooperation model proposed by Russia,” said Vargulis.
Speaking about the main achievements of the NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Riga, the expert noted that the development of a new strategic concept was given the green light, thus the meeting in Riga will go down in history as the starting point for this process.
According to Vargulis, over the next seven to eight months, the Alliance will develop a new strategic concept for approval at the NATO Summit in Madrid, where the Heads of State and Government will meet. This will be an important document as the Alliance responds to the existing threats it faces. It is not just about Russia’s growing military power or the annexation of Crimea, but also about China’s growing military power, which is manifested in various ways, including in the cyber environment. The strategy also outlines space as a new dimension, including the US perspective on transatlantic relations, which has changed in the context of several US administrations, including Afghanistan and the lessons learned from the mission.
“All in all, the last ten years have significantly changed the international security environment that the Alliance faced before, when the strategic concept was approved in 2010. It is an important step. The countries agree that such a strategic document and Riga as the place where the process was launched will go down in history, “said the expert.
LETA has already written that a meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers took place in Riga on 30 November and 1 December, where, in addition to addressing current security challenges, co-operation with partners and the European Union was discussed, as well as discussions on the Alliance’s new strategic concept.
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