It is the surprise of this end of COP. China and the United States, the world’s leading emitters of greenhouse gases, announced a surprise agreement at COP26 on Wednesday, reviving hopes two days before the end of this crucial climate conference.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, host of the Glasgow conference, had just called for a “strong impetus” in the talks, assuring that there would be “no excuses” for failing, when Beijing and Washington announced a “joint statement on strengthening climate action”.
No specific details
The two main world powers, whose rivalry had seemed in recent months to spill over into the field of climate diplomacy, are committed to doing more to fight against global warming, the consequences of which are increasingly being felt around the world. : droughts, floods, mega-fires, with their growing procession of victims and damage.
This bilateral pact is light in concrete objectives and its value is more political. The United States and China are already announcing the establishment of a bilateral working group dedicated to the fight against climate change. A meeting is due to take place in the first half of 2022. They also undertake, without very precise details, to “take reinforced measures to raise ambitions during the 2020s”, reaffirming their attachment to the objectives of the Paris Agreement, a limited warming “well below” 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, and if possible to 1.5 ° C. However, according to the UN, the world is still on a “catastrophic” trajectory of 2.7 ° C warming, and the COP26 is considered crucial to get the climate fight back on track.
“An important step”
Beijing and Washington also pledge to work in Glasgow for “an ambitious, balanced and inclusive outcome on mitigation (lower emissions), adaptation and financial support” to poor countries. An agreement hailed as “an important step in the right direction” by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. “Beyond the COP, it is important for the world”, for his part declared to AFP the vice-president of the European Commission Frans Timmermans.
Early Wednesday, after 10 days of discussions, the British presidency of the COP issued a first draft final declaration calling for strengthening and accelerating the pace of climate commitments by all countries to meet the objectives of the Paris agreement. This text has provoked mixed reactions, in particular from poor countries, which insist that the richest keep their aid promise.
The latest estimates are alarming
The project, which will still be the subject of negotiations and may change by the end of the COP (Conference of the Parties to the UN Climate Convention), scheduled for Friday but which may be extended, calls on countries to “review and strengthen” from 2022 the national contributions (NDC) which set their short-term commitments.
The 2015 Paris Agreement sets them to be reviewed every five years, but many countries called for them to be reviewed more frequently. It is, according to the text, to make these commitments “compatible with the warming objectives of the Paris Agreement”, that is to say “well below” of + 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, if possible + 1.5 ° C. Because the latest UN estimates are alarming with a world still on the path of a “catastrophic” warming of + 2.7 ° C by the end of the century.
“Far from the objectives”
The project also encourages countries to “accelerate the phase-out of coal and fossil fuel financing”. Such an explicit mention of fossil fuels, responsible for most emissions, is unprecedented, and does not appear in the Paris agreement in particular. But it promises to be bitterly disputed until the conclusion of the final text, in particular by the producing countries.
On the burning issue of financing, the text “notes with regret” the failure of developed countries to keep their promise to mobilize from 2020 some 100 billion dollars per year in climate aid to poor countries. Often the least polluting, they are also the most exposed to the ravages of climate change, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Tuvalu Archipelago recalled, telling the delegates of the COP “we are sinking”, in a video filmed standing up to mid-thigh in the ocean.
Mixed first impressions
The text does not put forward any concrete solution on financing, but calls for the strengthening of “adaptation” measures to the effects of climate change. Adaptation currently only accounts for about a quarter of this aid, compared to 75% spent on emission reductions. Poor countries demand at least parity. Regarding the other very controversial issue of “loss and damage” already suffered by the most exposed countries, the text “recognizes” the problem and its “urgency”. But there again without concrete modalities of action.
Negotiating groups from poor and emerging countries expressed almost unanimous concern during a meeting organized to gather initial reactions to the project. On the science side, Joeri Rogelj, member of the UN group of experts on the climate welcomed “progress”, but noted that the commitments were for the time being “far from the objectives of the Paris agreement”.
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