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Belarus’ hybrid attack is not over

Ilze Nagla: Thank you, Secretary-General, for agreeing to this interview. We are talking only a few days before the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Riga, but the hybrid attacks on Belarus are not on the ministerial agenda, at least not formally. Does this mean that the situation is returning to normal and no longer a threat?

NATO Secretary General Jens StoltenbergA: No, absolutely not. We will talk about Russia and also about the situation on the border with Belarus and our NATO allies Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. This will take place during the first session of the Riga meeting.

I expect the Foreign Ministers to once again clearly condemn the cynical actions of the Lukashenko regime, using vulnerable people to put pressure on neighboring countries.

NATO fully supports its allies, and we want to emphasize in particular that this is inhumane and completely unacceptable to the Lukashenko regime.

But the Polish prime minister said the flow of migrants had fallen to less than a month ago, but he had strong signals that the situation could worsen. How do you translate it? What does this mean for Latvia? Do we have to wait for these migrants to go to the Latvian-Belarusian border?

I wouldn’t speculate so much. What we know is that the Lukashenko regime has used and continues to use vulnerable people to put pressure on neighboring countries. We have seen that this is happening against Latvia, against Lithuania and, most recently, against Poland. NATO has condemned these activities, this behavior of the Belarussian regime, we have expressed our solidarity with the Allies, we have also provided support, for example, to Lithuania – we have sent experts to help Lithuania deal with the situation. It was quite critical there.

We have also been in contact with partner countries to make sure that they do not offer transit to people arriving on the Belarusian border and are grateful for their efforts. NATO and NATO Allies have done and will continue to monitor developments.

But has the situation been resolved? Can we say that the hybrid attacks from Belarus are over?

I think it is too early to say that it is over, the intensity has varied quite a bit, but of course it is not as serious as it was a few days ago. But I think

it is too early to say that it is over.

We need to be vigilant, we need to keep a close eye on developments and we need to continue to send out the clear messages we have made during this crisis.

As for the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border. This is the second time this year that we have seen Russia mobilize its troops on the Ukrainian border. Some military analysts say that this time everything is much more serious than before. How do you see this situation? What’s going on there? And what will happen?

What is happening is the concentration of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border, and this is the second time this year. We are talking about heavy weapons, battle tanks, drones, electronic military systems, and many other combat forces and capabilities. It is not clear what exactly Russia’s intentions are, but what we do know is that Russia has used force against Ukraine in the past. They did so in 2014, when they illegally annexed Crimea and continue to occupy Crimea. They continue to support separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Donbass, and they continue to destabilize eastern Ukraine. Russia is also responsible for cyber attacks on Ukraine and various aggressive hybrid activities against Ukraine. And in addition, we have recently seen very aggressive rhetoric from Russia. If we put it all together, there is plenty of cause for concern, and NATO is monitoring it closely. We are actively assessing the situation, sharing this information and sending a message to Russia that it needs to scale up, reduce tensions and be open about its presence near the border. And if they act, it will have consequences for Russia.

Some say the reason for concentrating Russian military forces on Ukraine’s border is to escalate the situation as much as possible and then demand that Ukraine give up its ambitions for NATO membership to de-escalate the situation. Is this a realistic scenario?

I think we should all be careful when speculating on Russia’s intentions.

There are facts we see. We see the concentration of Russian forces, we know Russia’s experience in using force against Ukraine, and we see rhetoric. NATO, of course, supports Ukraine – we provide political support, practical support for territorial integrity and sovereignty. It is the fundamental right of every independent sovereign state to decide its course, including whether it wants to be part of a security agreement or an alliance like NATO. That’s why –

whether Ukraine will become a member of NATO – it is a decision of Ukraine and its 30 Allies – no one else has a say or veto in such a process.

Before this interview, I talk to my colleagues in Riga and they say that quite often people usually ask them the question – will there be a real war? There is fear. What would you say to these people?

NATO exists to prevent war. NATO’s core mission is to ensure peace, and for more than 70 years, NATO has proven to be the most successful alliance in history, having been able to bring peace to nearly one billion people – 30 Allies. And we will continue to do so by providing deterrence and protection, sending a clear message to any potential adversary that if one of the Allies is attacked, it will be an attack on the whole alliance – one for all, all for one. And this also applies to Latvia, a highly valued ally.

I am really looking forward to going to Riga, and I congratulate Latvia on its serious efforts to contribute to NATO’s common security and collective defense, and also to host one of NATO’s battle groups, the Canadian-led battle group. I will also be attending this battle group when I am in Latvia early next week.

We do not see any immediate threat to any NATO Alliance

and we continue to transform NATO – in recent years we have introduced the largest collective defense capability since the end of the Cold War with battlegroups on the Alliance’s eastern flank, a tripling of NATO’s Rapid Reaction Force, air patrols and an increased naval presence on land, air and sea. present in the Baltic region to deter any aggression.

Thank you, Secretary-General, for the interview.

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