The number of hospital admissions as a result of the infections at those locations is about 82 percent lower with 2G than with 3G. A system where everyone has to prove that they have a negative test result (1G) reduces both the number of infections and the number of hospital admissions by 35 percent.
‘Test sensitivity’
A system works best in which only vaccinated or cured people are admitted with a negative test result. This reduces the number of infections by 79 percent and results in 93 percent fewer hospital admissions compared to the current 3G system.
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The results of the calculations do depend on how well the vaccine offers protection and how precise the test result is. For example, 2G (access only for cured or vaccinated people) at the current precision of tests is about as effective ‘in keeping infectious people out’ as 1G (everyone only gets access with a negative test result).
The OMT looks at ‘test sensitivity’, or ‘the percentage of correct positive results among the sick persons’. The higher the sensitivity, the better. If the test result is more reliable (a test sensitivity of more than 69 percent), the ‘test everyone’ system works better than 2G when it comes to preventing infections.
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Only when the test sensitivity is more than 88 percent does 1G work better than 2G in preventing hospitalizations.
Not really predictable
The OMT emphasizes that the not really predictable is exactly how such a system works out. Certain systems, for example, have negative effects on compliance. The results of the calculations must be seen as the maximum that can be achieved, because it is assumed that follow-up, control and enforcement are optimal.
The experts emphasize that the corona pass is in any case only a means to limit risks when sectors are opened and not a measure to prevent virus spread and fight an epidemic. According to the OMT, this is only possible through the basic rules and general corona measures.
Do not extend catering closing times
The OMT believes that better compliance with the current measures and basic rules (the rules of conduct) is crucial in reducing the number of contacts and infections.
The OMT also advises not to extend the closing time for the catering industry because that causes too many contacts, which in turn causes more infections. The OMT wants to ‘avoid the closing of schools’ as far as possible,
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