There is an ongoing concern that California could see a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming weeks and months.
What that will look like, and how serious it may ultimately turn out to be, remains an open question.
Officials and experts largely agree that California is unlikely to see an increase to reach the bleak numbers last winter, which overloaded hospitals with COVID-19 patients and killed tens of thousands across the state, in largely because many residents are already vaccinated.
But an increase in cases during the winter months, when temperatures drop and a packed holiday calendar could tempt residents to travel and mingle without taking proper precautions, remains a real possibility.
“With cases increasing in most of the state, we cannot lower our guard and underestimate this deadly virus,” said Dr. Tomás Aragón, director of the California Department of Public Health and state public health official, in a communicated on Monday.
Here’s a breakdown of where we are.
What is the concern in the face of the winter holidays?
Health officials have been warning of a possible further increase in COVID-19 cases in California, as seniors who received their vaccinations last winter, and did not receive a booster shot, may begin to see their immunity wane. , leaving them exposed to an increased risk of infections and hospitalization, as people gather indoors, more with the cold weather and the festivities approaching.
Demand for booster antigens has fallen below expectations in California. Each infected Californian is spreading the coronavirus to more and more people.
As of Saturday, computer models estimated that each infected Californian was spreading the virus on average to 0.96 other people. If that number rises above 1, it will set the stage for further growth of the pandemic.
Officials hope that strict vaccination requirements in some of California’s most populated areas will help slow the spread of cases in the winter. In Los Angeles, a new city rule that generally requires customers to show proof of complete vaccination to enter places like indoor restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, nail salons and nail salons went into effect Monday, but won’t take effect until after Thanksgiving.
What is the situation?
Across the state, COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations have stalled after months of decline.
But in some areas with lower vaccination rates, coronavirus hospitalizations have risen significantly since mid-October: 35% in San Bernardino and 27% in Fresno. Even in Orange County, where inoculation rates are relatively high, COVID-19 hospitalizations increased 29% over the same time period.
The San Joaquin Valley is reporting the highest rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the state; For every 100,000 residents, the region has 25 hospitalized people, compared to 15 per 100,000 in rural Northern California, 14 in the Sacramento metropolitan area, eight in the southern part of the state, and four in the Bay Area from San Francisco.
Some experts indicate that a rate of five or more is concerning.
In Southern California, San Bernardino and Riverside counties are reporting the worst hospitalization rates per 100,000 residents: 15 and 10, respectively. San Diego County has eight; Orange County, seven; Los Angeles County, six; and Ventura County, four.
How do we compare to 2020?
On November 8, 2020, California reported a seven-day average of 6,200 new coronavirus cases per day. A month later, the state registered 26,000 new cases a day. In early January, the number increased to more than 45,000. The daily reported case load did not steadily fall below 10,000 until mid-February.
Current case rates are roughly the same as last year at this time. During the seven-day period ending Monday, California reported 5,720 new coronavirus cases per day, according to data compiled by the Times.
Where is California with vaccines?
Almost 62% of Californians are fully vaccinated.
However, there are millions of residents across the state who have less protection against the coronavirus. Given the evidence that antigen immunity may decline over time, officials emphasize that it is important that all eligible individuals, particularly those who are at high risk for severe COVID-19 symptoms, receive a booster injection.
Uninoculated Californians continue to be disproportionately affected by the pandemic, state data shows. Unvaccinated people are about seven times more likely to contract COVID-19, 10 times more likely to require hospitalization, and 17 times more likely to die, compared to those who are vaccinated.
What is the national panorama?
The highest concentration of coronavirus cases has expanded from Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming and is spreading further south, through Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona.
States with low vaccination rates, such as Wyoming, where only 44.5% of residents are fully inoculated, are among the highest case rates in the country, as are several states with vaccination rates similar to California’s 61.9%. like Colorado with 62.1%, New Mexico with 62.6% and Minnesota with 61.6%, said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco and an expert in infectious diseases.
“Even in highly vaccinated places like New Hampshire and Vermont, you can see how these northernmost levels of counties are starting to develop outbreaks and more transmission, just like Alaska,” Rutherford recently emphasized at a UC San Francisco forum.
That’s why Colorado, New Mexico and Minnesota could be warning signs of California’s future, Rutherford explained. Those three states have weekly rates of coronavirus cases that are triple what California now reports. Wyoming’s rate is more than three and a half times worse than California’s.
Rutherford said that, relatively speaking, Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties are doing well. But he cautioned that San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino counties have a fairly high rate of cases.
All of these factors suggest that non-inoculated people should get their vaccinations, including children ages 5 to 11 who just became eligible last week, Rutherford noted.
People who have recovered from COVID-19 should also get vaccinated. A study published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicated that COVID-19 survivors who went un-inoculated were five times more likely to contract a new coronavirus infection, compared to fully vaccinated people who they had never been infected.
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