By the probabilities, Atlético-MG is already in the Copa Libertadores 2022. It seems obvious, since the ambition and reality of the club shows is the proximity of the long-awaited title in the Brazilian championship. But, in advance, the presence of Galo in the next edition of the South American tournament is statically guaranteed.
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It will be the club’s eighth participation in the biggest interclub competition in South America, in the last 10 editions of Libertadores. From 2013 (when they were unprecedented champions) until 2022, Atlético only did not participate in 2018 and 2020. Until 2013, the club’s history showed four appearances in the tournament (1972, 1978, 1981 and 2000).
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The mathematics department at UFMG indicate a 100% probability of Libertadores ao Galo, in addition to a 95.5% chance of a Brazilian title.
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Galo was semifinalist at Libertadores 2021 — Photo: Pedro Souza/Atlético-MG
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A page turn from a winning team built at the turn of 2011 to 2012, with Cuca in charge. The coach is who most was ahead of Galo in Libertadores games. In the current edition, stopped in the semifinal, eliminated by Palmeiras.
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And Palmeiras is a key point in Galo’s vacancy in 2022. Verdão will play the final on November 27 against Flamengo, in Montevideo. Brazilian football will have a Libertadores champion. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are in contention for the Brazilian title, invariably, will be in the G-6 and, therefore, being Libertadores finalists, the G-6 became the G-7. And it can become G-8 and even G-8. There are no guarantees.
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But it is true to say that Atlético-MG’s worst place in the 2021 Brazilian Nationals is seventh. Today, the eighth place Fluminense has 23 points less than Galo (65 x 42), with 24 more to be played. Nonetheless, Flu will face Inter, seventh, in the 35th round – at Maracanã.
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Or Tricolor, or Colorado could pass Atlético, in a surreal situation where the leader no longer wins and stops at 65 points. Another point of analysis is: Galo will face sixth place in Corinthians this Wednesday, if he wins, he already guarantees presence in the G-6, so the place in the Libertadores 2022 will no longer be “statistically” certain, but mathematically.
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It is worth remembering that Atlético is a finalist in the Copa do Brasil 2021, against Athletico-PR, which is yet another gateway to Libertadores. The decision will be in two games, 12/12 (BH) and 15/12 (Curitiba).
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Libertadores Cup — Photo: Staff Images/Conmebol
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The Brasileirão 2021 can open a vacancy in the Libertadores (previous) up to the eighth and ninth place. In addition to the continental final between Brazilians, the South American, whose champion also ranks the Libertadores, has Bragantino (4th) and Athletico-PR (11th) in the decision, on 11/20.
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Hurricane is the only Conmebol tournament finalist outside the Libertadores classification zone in the Brazilian Nationals. Assuming that the team from Paraná wins the Sudamericana and also the Copa do Brasil, but remains in 11th place, the Libertadores spot via Copa do Brasil would be transferred to the Brazilian (G-8).
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The G-9 at the Brazilian Nationals would be possible under the following conditions: Flamengo or Palmeiras finish the Brazilian at the G-6; Athletico-PR wins the Copa do Brasil and is among the eight points run, and Bragantino is champion of the South American Championship, staying in the G-8.
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