Dutch climate targets seem unattainable for the time being, but the situation is improving

CO2 emissions are currently rising and will probably be too much in the coming years to meet the climate targets. But in the somewhat longer term, things look better for Dutch climate policy than previously thought. That is one of the conclusions in the Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV), an annual report from Statistics Netherlands, RIVM, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and TNO, among others.

At the same time, another body, the Council of State, is coming up with a less rosy picture: the outgoing cabinet must intervene immediately. “The approach to the climate crisis and the necessary energy transition cannot be put on hold,” says RvS vice president Thom de Graaf.

Corona

While emissions were about 25 percent lower last year than in 1990, they are likely to rise again this year. Last year’s favorable figure was partly due to corona. Companies produced less and there was less traffic. This year, on the other hand, had a relatively cold spring, resulting in more gas consumption and CO2 emissions, and the industry is producing more.

That increase will continue for the time being, the researchers behind the KEV expect. A new cabinet will therefore probably have to come up with additional measures to achieve the required 25 percent reduction that follows from the Urgenda lawsuit. “It is true that the low-hanging fruit has now been picked,” says Pieter Hammingh of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Moreover, there is an extra task on top of that, because of the new European climate agreements.

Electric intercity buses

Towards 2030, climate policy appears to be bearing more fruit. Emissions are then expected to have fallen by 38 to 48 percent compared to 1990. That is considerably more than was thought last year, when the expected decrease would be 30 to 40 percent. The considerable bandwidth is explained by uncertainties in, for example, the degree of import or export of electricity, economic growth and weather conditions.

According to the KEV, there are two sectors in which things are going well: industry and mobility. The researchers assume that in industry CO2 is captured and stored under the North Sea. With regard to mobility, it is expected that there will be more electric delivery vans and electric regional buses and that freight transport will also be made more sustainable.

It is more difficult to remove existing houses and companies from natural gas. Climate policy is also difficult in agriculture. Hammingh of the PBL points out that there is a lot of discussion in that sector. “Are we going to do it with technical measures or, for example, with a reduction in livestock? Or with a combination of the two?”

The outgoing cabinet says it has made “great progress” to reduce emissions, but also recognizes that more is needed to achieve the goals of the Climate Act.

Heart of new coalition agreement

According to Ed Nijpels, who supervises compliance with the Dutch Climate Agreement, there is a major task ahead for a new cabinet. “I think that climate policy should form the heart of a new coalition agreement.” He is annoyed that politicians sometimes say that climate policy must be feasible and affordable.

“That word feasible gives the impression as if it is a non-committal operation, as if climate policy is a kind of snack bar from which you can order at will.” But, he says, climate policy is simply legal and mandatory. According to him, the Netherlands can also afford it.

“We spent 80 billion euros with Covid-19. Then I did not hear anyone ask whether that is feasible or affordable. For good climate policy, you will lose a maximum of six billion euros per year.” He believes that people with low incomes, residents of poor housing and small businesses should be helped.

Incidentally, Nijpels also points to positive developments, such as the now one and a half million houses with solar panels. “Every 4 seconds a solar panel is added in the Netherlands.”

Council of State: immediate action

In addition to the KEV, the annual Climate Memorandum was also presented by the Council of State this morning. He believes that the government should intervene immediately because of the nature and scale of the climate crisis. The Council notes that the climate targets set for 2030 and 2050 are out of sight. The measures have so far been insufficient to achieve the objectives, according to the memorandum.

The risk of severe rainfall and flooding such as last summer in Limburg, Germany and Belgium is increasing further. That is why the EU has already increased its ambitions, but according to the Council, Dutch measures are lagging behind. The government should take more control and create a separate Minister for Climate Policy.

The Climate Act is not being used enough to implement measures, according to the Council of State. According to the council, the government should do that, especially with the law in hand.

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