Prof. Nikolay Vitanov with a thorough analysis of the situation with the coronavirus in our country. The mathematician also issued a warning to all residents of the Plovdiv region, as the situation in the district became critical.
Brief information about the operational situation for Bulgaria regarding the COVID-19 pandemic for October 19, 2021.
This information is for people who want to know what I expect to happen with the pandemic in the coming days.
The information is as it comes from computers. Good or bad, this is coming out, this is what I am writing to you.
What should I write. You who read these summaries regularly – are you surprised? You are not. This is exactly what was expected. Secondary peak by the end of October, right.
What happened, haters? Where did your theory go that you already have herd immunity? Where we expected her to go – in the toilet. Let the water smell. Do you remember the last interview from last week of the guru, where the diploma would be torn last year, how we will commit to 3000 – 3500 cases. Please? !!! Again – how long will we stay? How much is the mortality rate? Come on, get out – roar and howl against Vitanov.
Roar and howl that it warns you in advance what is to come. By the way, do you realize how the minimum existing determinism is extracted from such data, my haters. That try, de. Make predictions as accurate as mine and then evaluate me. And do you know what determinism is in data? And can you? Answer – Vitanov’s theorem for the incompetence of haters:
The haters just howl and roar, they can’t give a decent forecast.
For those who are not haters: Sorry, but I’m not at all happy that my predictions are coming true. I want them not to come true and for these people to go through this ordeal more easily. But it doesn’t work. And what comes out of computers does not inspire me with optimism. Therefore
people from all over the country, be especially careful in the next 2 weeks. take care of your bodies – they are your most precious property. It is very difficult to repair damage there. Think of the people on the front line who are panting. The hospitals are full. Beware – there is no one to protect you.
WITHmortality is high. Such were the expectations, but remember, the roar against these predictions was so great that I stopped saying numbers on them. I will not say. I wrote to you that I dare not write anything about mortality in October. I wrote it to you in September. The numbers today are like that
About the mortality (died according to the official portal coronavirus.bg, that some haters do not yet know what these numbers are) – no comment, just numbers for information:
died at the end of September 2021 – 20882
died to this day – 22488
died October 2020 (for the whole month) – 441
died for October 2021 – 1606 (for 18 days)
The death toll so far for October 2021 is 3.64 times more than the death toll for the whole of October 2020.
No comment. But no comment. Draw your own conclusions, whoever wants to make them. I only give numbers, I will make the comment at the end of the month, as I promised you.
Let me point things out – there is no politics here. Only numbers without comment. If you ask why I do it – I study the effect of the corrosive effect of anti-covid and anti-wax theories on the population. A good indicator of this is mortality. I’m looking for an answer to the simple question – why this wool is not lubricated, since there are vaccines. Why? Answer – at the end of the month, as I promised you.
Here are the cards for today.
First the map according to the plan of the Ministry of Health. The number of Level 4 areas is growing slowly.
Today there are 14 together with the candidates. Half the country. Lovech is a new candidate
Therefore:
People from Lovech region – BEWARE! The spread of the virus in you is diffuse and your area is a candidate for entry level 4 according to the Plan of the Ministry of Health. Observe the basic measures, avoid places where many people gather.
Otherwise, you see the big problem area in Western Bulgaria. Those of you who read these summaries regularly know that the formation of this area has long been predicted.
Problems are expected in it this week and next.
In the Eastern Rhodopes and in Pleven the situation is no longer the same
so calm, things are slowly getting worse there.
Kardzhali is good against the general background.
The problem area in western Bulgaria is clearly visible on the forecast map of the 14-day morbidity.
However, something very unpleasant can be seen there – Plovdiv has set out to become a candidate for level 4 according to the risk scale of the plan of the Ministry of Health. Let me try to help prevent this.
Therefore:
People from Plovdiv region – take care! The spread of the virus in your country is diffuse and the district will soon be a candidate for entry to level 4 according to the Plan of the Ministry of Health. Observe the basic measures, avoid places where many people gather.
Today the basic reproductive number is 1,291.
It is too close to 1.3. If he transfers it, the pressure will no longer be smooth. People on the front line feel the increasing pressure.
People on the front line. Darlings, again, things rested on your heroism. Prepare for a heavy 2 weeks. But you know. You’ve been through such peaks twice, you know what it is. And I know there are tears in my eyes now.
The spread of the infection in the country is predominantly diffuse. Today, 23 districts are so widespread.
We haven’t started a week with so many areas in a long time. By the end of the week, the situation here is expected to worsen.
Honestly, I can’t find a place. What happens to you people – everything that happens was predicted to you quite in advance. Why do you allow us to follow the darkest scenario? Understand at last, beware. As long as you listen to them with the theorists. In the pistol of Russian roulette bullets are already more than one, do not play with your life and health. Think that this pandemic will pass. Then you have to keep living. It is good that your biological property is not damaged. The life of a disabled person is difficult, realize it. BEWARE NOW!
God is my witness, I can do no more.
This is for now. I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you.
–
