Hospitals must prepare for an overload of the ICUs due to a spike in the number of corona patients. That’s what Jaap van Dissel, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Control and modeler Jacco Wallinga, both from RIVM, say in an interview with the NOS.
Despite the worrying prospect, the Outbreak Management Team (OMT), chaired by Van Dissel, has not recently advised the cabinet on new corona measures. According to the OMT, relaxation of the current measures is not an issue for the time being.
We see the infection rates are rising fast. How worried are you that hospital admissions will soon rise sharply?
Jaap van Dissel: “Infections now mean something completely different than last year. The reported infections have been found in a mix of all kinds of different groups, which makes it difficult to predict what will happen to the recordings. clear whether we should be concerned or not.”
Calculations by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) point to an IC occupancy of 180 corona patients in January, with a possible peak of 400. Flooding ICs, said intensivist Diederik Gommers on Wednesday. What is the probability of this scenario?
Jacco Wallinga: “What we want to say with those forecasts is that we certainly cannot rule out such a high IC occupancy, but the margins are quite wide. So we have to prepare for it to be possible. We can’t do everything. just letting go, that’s an important finding.”
You say we need to prepare for overburdened care and postponement of regular treatments. That’s very worrying isn’t it?
Wallinga: “We have always indicated that we could have another wave this winter. It is especially important to find out which group exactly is the main driver of the new increase. For example, we see the reports increase sharply at the 10 to 14-year-olds. They don’t end up in hospital, that’s the good news.”
“In the end, it really depends on whether we will see an epidemic in the near future that will slowly move from one municipality to another. That may become very bad at the municipal level, but you can handle it at the national level. But if they all coming at the same time, that’s a whole different story.”
Why does it have OMT no new measures advised to the cabinet?
Van Dissel: “We have considered that, but we saw no reason for that in the numbers. You would like to look far ahead, until April for example, but in practice you look two to three weeks ahead, take steps and make assessments “And every now and then it is not too bad, and every now and then it is disappointing. An important uncertainty is, for example, the seasonal effect; the weather is simply difficult to predict.”
But if in the end you still have to advise measures shortly in advance, isn’t it too late?
Van Dissel: “Such an increase in hospitals does not suddenly occur. If we really start to deviate from the forecasts, then we as OMT will meet sooner. The peak is now in January, which still gives time to react. The most important intervention, by the way, is the highest possible vaccination coverage, which is now going reasonably well and we are continuing to increase a bit.”
Will the vaccination rate still rise? Because in an online advice of the RIVM to the ministry about the testing capacity: “The vaccination rate will not change much anymore”.
Van Dissel: “We have had the large numbers, but we are still seeing a slight increase and every percent is different.”
Do the vaccines still work?
Van Dissel: “Yes, the effectiveness in combating hospital admissions and ICU admissions remains high. Roughly four out of five of all hospital patients in the Netherlands with a covid infection are now not vaccinated. The other people have been vaccinated, but they are not vaccinated. generally older and have underlying medical problems.”
If the vaccines still work so well, why has Minister De Jonge already announced that he will kill the oldest elderly? a booster vaccination want to give?
Van Dissel: “We do see an increase in minor symptoms of disease among vaccinated people. And this can cause a problem in, for example, nursing homes. We are now seeing some increase in infections there, which naturally causes unrest. That could be a reason to start in the spring. boosters, so that the virus is passed on less quickly. We are in no acute rush, because the effectiveness against hospital admissions remains high.”
A Thursday published critical report from consultancy KPMG states that in the Netherlands too much is focused on hospital admissions and not on infections. You were responsible for that advice, do you think the criticism is justified?
Van Dissel: “I still have to manage that report and I’m not going to shoot out of the hip about it. I take what you say and we’re going to look at it.”
The report states that health damage has been prevented in countries that introduced a lockdown very early.
Van Dissel: “Which countries were those?”
Some Scandinavian countries.
Van Dissel: “Well I have looked at that before and it is not correct that they were faster. The Netherlands does not stand out in a negative way among the Scandinavian countries, especially if you look at the first phase. I do not know how they arrive at that. .”
Another point of criticism is that in the Netherlands too often an optimistic scenario has been assumed in the fight against corona. Are we doing that again by not yet taking new measures in response to the increasing infection figures?
Van Dissel: “What we do is present the scenarios to politicians along with the numbers. Ultimately, making the choice is not up to us. We are just trying to paint the picture correctly. We are completely clear and transparent about that. is how we see our share.”
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