The disinformation about Covid-19 also uses completely official data – all that remains is to hide something, not to show a part, to compare the incomparable or to give a false explanation of this data, the Latvian Television program “de facto” concluded.
IN SHORT:
- It is misleading to compare the situation with Covid-19 in Sweden and Israel.
- Foreign Minister Adviser Sandra Sondore shared a deceptive comparison of countries on Facebook to spark a discussion.
- Experts emphasize that side-by-side factors must always be taken into account when comparing national data.
- Vaccination is an indicator where the connections are also very clear in comparison with other countries – the more vaccinated, the fewer sick, hospitalized and dead, said Yuri Perevoshchikov, an epidemiologist at the Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
- In the European Union as a whole, 63% of the population have been vaccinated, in Latvia – 45%, which cannot be explained by misinformation alone.
- Health Minister Daniels Pavļuts does not promise that 70% of the population will be vaccinated by the end of the year.
The show analyzed one such example, which recently gained great popularity on Facebook and was shared by both supporters of the political forces on the Covid-19 wave of skepticism and, for example, an adviser to the Foreign Minister. Basically, in such cases, information about foreign countries is used, for example, when saying that there is a lot of freedom in Sweden, by default that there are currently much more people vaccinated there.
It is Sweden, whose situation has been compared to Israel, that is one of the recent examples. More than 3,000 people have shared a graph on Facebook, with Israeli morbidity rates rising sharply and falling in Sweden, according to what he says is a misguided vaccination and restriction policy. Namely, Israel, with a rising morbidity curve, is also a leader in forced vaccination and restrictions, compared to Sweden, with a lower curve, a diametrically opposed approach to this issue.
This is manipulation, because there is only a fragment of a wider time lag, which reveals that Sweden has also done worse in the past. In addition, when analyzing mortality curves, the situation in Sweden turns out to be more dramatic than in Israel. The promotion of Israel as a leader in vaccination is also untrue. This was the case in the early spring, when people in Israel were actively vaccinated, but since then vaccination has almost stopped there and is 64%. Sweden, meanwhile, picked up the pace in the summer and is now overtaking Israel in terms of vaccination.
Dace Zavadska, the head of the State Council of Immunization, admitted that we have to be careful about what and with whom we compare: “If we want to compare, then first of all we can compare the same things. Or at least things as close as possible.
But we can’t compare cabbage to potatoes, and we can’t take one study from one country and compare it with another. “
Israeli morbidity rates did rise until mid-September. The head of the National Council for Immunization acknowledged that there were no answers, but it should be noted that in certain regions or religious communities in this country, vaccination is significantly lower. There are also new outbreaks. In addition, the way in which different things are defined varies from country to country. “The most important thing is hospitalization first. What Israel considers hospitalization and when people are hospitalized in Israel is different from how people are hospitalized in Europe, in the United States. People hospitalized in Israel would not have been hospitalized. I would say that they would not have come to our hospital either. There are many such nuances, so these data are not comparable, ”explained Zavadska.
Rinkēvičs’ adviser wanted to stimulate a discussion
Former Spokesman of the State Audit Office Līga Krapāne, who resigned after a conflict with the management over the signing of a letter questioning the Covid-19 test and vaccination, and who has now joined Ainars Slesers’ political force, also shared the graph with the manipulative comparison of Swedish and Israeli data on Facebook. , as well as Sandra Sondore, Adviser to Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs.
Krapane declined to share this post’s comment. Sondore, for his part, stated that the division had been followed by a valuable discussion, and that he himself had found data which revealed a different picture of Sweden, and had concluded that no unambiguous data could be found for Israel. However, she did not delete the message.
“The motivation to share this information was to stimulate discussion, as indicated by the icon above the publication, which usually indicates the thought process. These data were also discussed in the comments. The comments contained valuable data and an intelligent exchange of ideas between the participants of the discussion, which kept the publication in my news feed, ”she pointed out.
Comparisons should take into account ancillary factors
Experts emphasize that side-by-side factors must always be taken into account when comparing national data. Therefore, for example, it cannot be simplified to conclude that no restrictions are necessary if other countries have good indicators even without them.
“One thing that is set on paper. For example, we will have to use masks on public transport and indoors. This is clear on paper. It is beautifully written on paper and supposed to work! But in real life it doesn’t happen. On the other hand, there are countries where it would be only a recommendation, but people follow it very well, ”explained Yuri Perevoshchikov, an epidemiologist at the Center for Disease Prevention and Control.
Meanwhile, misinformation or inappropriate interpretation of data falls on fertile soil. This is evidenced both by the number of people who pass on such information on social networks and by the attitude towards vaccination, which for many remains still, if not negative, then waiting. However, vaccination is an indicator where the correlations are also very clear in comparison with other countries – the more vaccinated, the less sick, hospitalized and dead, the epidemiologist pointed out.
“If we take the countries with the worst vaccination rates, the worst coverage, the lowest, then it is in these countries that we now see that the incidence is rising, rising quite rapidly. Unfortunately, we also see that this increase is in Latvia and, unfortunately, in our neighboring Estonians as well, ”Perevoschikov pointed out.
In Latvia, it is not just misinformation that is to blame
In the European Union as a whole, 63% of the population has been vaccinated. Leaders are Portugal with 85% of vaccinees and, for example, Spain, Denmark and Ireland with more than 70%. Latvia and Estonia have about 45% of those vaccinated. But the lowest figures are for Bulgaria, which did not even reach 20% at the end of September. In terms of mortality, Bulgaria, on the other hand, is leading the way. Mortality, as well as hospitalization, are currently the most important indicators in drawing conclusions about the usefulness of vaccination.
However, the remaining results of Latvia cannot be explained only by disinformation. The vaccination process has been around since the beginning, both when planning the purchase of vaccines and then organizing the receipt of the vaccine. Those responsible for organizing the process now promise to change their approach, address them more individually and drive to people with buses specially equipped for vaccination. The morbidity is growing rapidly right now, so there is no time at all. Although the plans state that the 70% coverage planned for the summer at the current vaccination rate could be reached by the end of the year, there is no certainty about that.
“We understand that setting this goal is like setting a beacon for ourselves, more like defining desires than such a credible prediction.
At the moment, I cannot make a credible forecast that we will be able to vaccinate these conditional 70% of Latvian society by the end of the year. We are working to make it happen, that is our wish.
Our guide light. I cannot promise that this will happen, “said Health Minister Daniels Pavļuts.
At the moment, one of the key questions is, how effective will the measures planned by the vaccination organizers to promote vaccination be? The Ministry of Health is hoping to increase the pace of the Janssen vaccine, after which there were even queues at vaccination points. However, this can be followed by disappointment if it turns out that you will still need to get a second dose.
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