Maris Kučinskis: Hesitation to make important decisions creates new threats of hybrid war

For some time now, news columns have regularly featured information about the people of the Middle East, who, using a rather direct and undisguised invitation from Belarus, try to enter Latvia and thus also the European Union (EU) through the border territory of our neighboring country.

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We can hardly expect that the flow of migration to Latvia via Belarus will decrease in the coming months. Of course, one can try to comfort oneself with the idea that migrants from the region may be too cold here during the winter months, but this is unlikely to be an argument for these people not to try to realize their intentions. It must not be forgotten that we are talking about the people of a region of the world who, according to eyewitnesses, are ready to bring small crying children to the fore in order to achieve their goals, in an attempt to pity European border guards and the local community.

However, the most important aspect is that in this case we are not talking about migration or refugees and their problems, but organized crime – it is human trafficking, and in fact it is no longer a secret that the Belarusian authorities are facilitating, organizing this process. Thus, taking into account the geopolitical situation in Europe, we must talk here about the elements of a hybrid war with the aim of weakening the Latvian state. And this, in turn, means that new steps must be taken to strengthen national security, and that this must be done quickly.

At present, about 300 such residents have arrived in Latvia, and we have not heard any comments from the government on how to proceed with them. These are people who have paid money to smugglers in return for promises that they will be taken to the EU. In this context, it should be recalled that Latvia faced the problem of human smuggling in the past (about three years ago), when well-organized groups of people tried to smuggle Vietnamese people across the border of our country so that they could continue to profit for a Western European country.

These people were checked and boarded by the responsible Latvian authorities to return to Vietnam, which was possible because there was an agreement with Vietnam to send such people home. At present, we do not have such an agreement with the countries that these people represent. This means that we cannot allow these people to continue on their way, for example, to Germany. First of all, such action on the part of Latvia would not be correct towards our European partners, we simply cannot afford it. We cannot afford to act, as the Belarusian authorities are doing, pushing these refugees through the forest towards the border. If we did that for our allies, the situation in Europe, including Latvia, would only get worse. Secondly, the moment the Iraqis who come here enter Germany, they will already be formally illegal immigrants from … Latvia. This means that Germany or any other European country will send them to Latvia again. It is also clear that we cannot send these people to Belarus, where they came from, because no one will receive them there.

At present, it is important to ensure that the number of migrants entering Latvia does not increase from the current 300 to 3,000 or even 30,000. Therefore, the involvement of our army and the National Guard in guarding the border with Belarus is fully understood and supported. It is clear that the border guard alone will have insufficient capacity if the flow of refugees from Belarus increases.

It should be noted, however, that it has already been established that Iraqis are trying to send signals to their country, that the idea of very simple entry into the EU through the Baltic States has turned out to be a naive illusion. Furthermore, it is no secret that the Belarusians are showing false news on their television channels about the alleged situation on the border, staging scenes so that we look bad. Stories about alleged processes in Latvia are filmed. This is misleading propaganda, which is undeniably an element of the hybrid war that is still going on.

It should be reminded that at one time, during the previous government (not without resistance), a fence construction project was implemented between Latvia and Russia. At that time, with the support of Russia, unflattering publications appeared in various European media that we were supposedly creating something similar to the infamous Berlin Wall. At the time, the emphasis was on such enhanced security on the border with Russia. At that time, the main setting was to organize the border as quickly as possible so that the fence would be safer, so all the processes involved in its creation took place quickly. If any irregularities have occurred in the procurement process as part of this implementation process, the responsible authorities must investigate this and bring the perpetrators to justice. However, this must in no way affect the efficiency of fence construction, taking into account that it is a question of the security of Latvia as an independent state.

At that time, it was also decided to develop and implement a project to strengthen the border and build a fence on the Latvian-Belarusian border, although at that time there was a very friendly relationship between the two countries, as well as between Belarus and the EU. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko positioned himself as a friend of the EU, a defender of the indivisibility of the territory of Ukraine, with whom we were also opposed by those who thought differently. According to the fence decided at that time, the border between the two countries should have been built already in 2019, but unfortunately it is still not there.

One of the unwritten rules of sustainable policy is not to react to existing events, but to be able to forecast possible scenarios, at least in the medium term, and to make decisions in accordance with these forecasts. Following the actions of President Lukashenko of Belarus, it was not even very difficult to predict that he would not always position himself as a European friend trying to help Ukraine. It has now become clear that caution, distrust of the Belarussian regime, even at a time when relations with such neighbors may have been relatively good, was justified and the decision to strengthen the borders was the right one.

We must not forget that our border is also the border of the EU, so the decision of this government to stop the construction, because in the process of its implementation it turned out that each other understood it as an opportunity to increase personal benefits, was hasty. Another unwritten law of sustainable policy says that the art is to be able to assess priorities in any decision-making process: to punish the perpetrators and prevent dishonesty, rather than succumbing to the emotions of the moment by overturning the decision or changing the law. Figuratively speaking, the bath with the whole child has been poured once again.

Therefore, a wish to the government – involve supervisors, KNAB, State Audit Office and other responsible services, so that everyone wants to tolerate any irregularities, but do not hesitate to build a border, applying the most difficult procurement procedures and thus effectively unpredictable date for the project.

As we can see in practice in the context of the infamous builders’ cartel, difficult procurement procedures are not an end in themselves for various skilled workers. We have one country, and even without knowing what we will do with the current entrants to the Belarussian regime, we must not allow this human trafficking to continue. Currently, our country must take the next step – the fence between Latvia and Belarus must be erected immediately! Action in this area must be swift and decisive. And yet, the processes related to human smuggling clearly prove that the fence between Latvia and Belarus must be more fundamental than what has already been built between Latvia and Russia.