A record number of voters voted in advance. A VG poll among those who state that they have already voted, indicates a dramatic fight against the barrier limit for KrF, Venstre and MDG.
Friday was the last day voters could vote in advance before Monday’s parliamentary elections. Figures from the Norwegian Electoral Directorate show that never before have so many advance votes been cast as this year.
More than 1.6 million voters have already cast their ballots. This corresponds to 42.3 per cent of all eligible voters in Norway.
If the turnout is the same as in the 2017 election (78 percent), more than half of the votes in this year’s election will already have been cast.
VG can now present a poll among voters who state that they have already voted. It provides a unique insight into the actual voting at this year’s election.
See the poll among those who have voted in advance below. The parties’ support must be interpreted within a margin of error of up to 2-3 percentage points. The support is compared with the advance votes in 2017, not with the actual election result.
Strong numbers for the outer left
In Norway, it is strictly forbidden to communicate actual election results before the polling stations are closed at 21 on election day. VG therefore emphasizes that this is only an ordinary opinion poll, which is occupied until Wednesday this week, but where the question is different than with ordinary party barometers.
In VG’s weekly party polls over the past four weeks, respondents were also asked if they had voted in advance, and if so, which party.
A total of 824 of 4002 of the respondents stated during the period that they had voted in advance. It is these figures that are the basis for the survey VG now presents.
– There is a clear direction of red-green majority, but it can be a dramatic battle around the barrier, says election analyst Svein Tore Marthinsen about the numbers.
It is especially Rødt and SV that make it sharp among those who have voted in advance. For the Conservatives, the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, the figures indicate a sharp decline from the 2017 election.
– It is first and foremost Rødt and SV who get good news. The right is not doing well. This is a signal that they are making a bad choice, says Idar Eidset in Respons Analyze.
KrF is struggling violently
For KrF, MDG and Venstre, the figures may indicate that election night will be a nerve-wracking battle against the barrier limit.
Marthinsen says that there is the greatest tension around KrF will reach the barrier limit.
– For KrF, it is scary to be on this number. They are completely dependent on mobilizing now. There is a 50-50 chance of doing it, as I see it.
If VG’s poll is correct, KrF clearly does worse among those who have voted in advance this year, compared to the election four years ago. In 2017, the party came across the barrier with an emergency cry.
– KrF is now dependent on a powerful mobilization, especially in the core areas in Rogaland and in Sørlandet, says Marthinsen.
–Small margins for MDGs
Even though MDG is above the threshold with 5.3 percent on the measurement, they can not take anything for granted, we must believe Marthinsen.
– Some parties traditionally do better among those who vote in advance than on election day. This applies in particular to Red, SV and MDG.
– For the Center Party, it is the opposite; They traditionally do better on election day, Marthinsen adds.
He says he thinks it will be possible for the MDGs to get over the threshold if the party actually has 5.3 percent of the advance votes.
– But I would not feel confident about it. They have had a disturbing tendency and made a weak school choice. They have not been able to exploit the momentum around the environment and climate in the final phase. Growth has stopped.
Big differences in 2017
In the 2017 election, the MDGs received 4.1 percent of the advance votes, but only 2.8 percent of the votes cast on election day. Thus, the party ended up well below the threshold with 3.2 percent of the total number of votes cast.
Sp received only 8.8 percent of the advance votes in 2017, but 11.2 percent of the votes on election day. This gave an overall result of 10.3 percent.
Since far more advance votes have been cast this year, the difference in support between advance votes and election day votes can be less than before.
See the difference between the parties’ support among the advance votes and among the votes on election day in the previous parliamentary elections in the table below. In 2017, those who voted in advance accounted for 36 percent of all those who voted.
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