The active phase of the joint military training “Zapad” will take place in the Russian and Belarusian landfills, as well as in the Baltic Sea from September 10 to 16. The Baltic States and Poland, who are worried about possible provocations, are watching the training with concern.
Zapad’s military exercises this time take place at a time when Western relations with Russia, and especially with the Alexander Lukashenko regime in Belarus, are very tense. Minsk has made no secret of the fact that Zapad sees the entire NATO alliance as an enemy in military scenarios. Meanwhile, within the alliance and beyond there are growing concerns about Moscow’s intentions.
The situation should not be exacerbated
The previous joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise “Zapad” or “West” took place four years ago. Relations between Russia and the West were still tense at the time, but now they are at a very low point with the regime of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, which Latvia, Lithuania and Poland accuse of using migrants as a weapon of hybrid aggression.
A few days ago, while visiting Tallinn, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs discussed these issues with his Estonian counterpart.
“Right now, we see that the training will be quite extensive. It is difficult to say how many and what kind of provocative actions could be implemented. However, I would like to hope that there is an understanding that the already very tense situation should not be exacerbated.
And we also talked about the fact that, if necessary, of course, we have the articles and instruments provided for in the NATO agreement, ”emphasizes Rinkēvičs.
NATO Allies are ready for any scenario
Zapad’s training in a situation where the services of Latvia and neighboring countries intensify border surveillance in the conditions of illegal migration flows, but on the other hand military maneuvers are performed by Russian and Belarusian soldiers, increases the risk of an accident or recalculation.
NATO has called on Russia to act in a predictable and transparent manner, noting that in a previous Zapad exercise, Moscow declared the participation of less than 13,000 troops, but was in fact between 60,000 and 70,000 troops.
“We expect transparency from Russia and Belarus, that observers are invited, that they are allowed to understand what is really going on there.
At the same time, there is no reason to panic. NATO Allies are ready for any scenario, ”reassures NATO Deputy Secretary General for Public Diplomacy Baiba Braže.
NATO Deputy Secretary General for Public Diplomacy Baiba Braže
Photo: Gints Amoliņš, LTV
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“Preparedness for different situations is what we are, in essence, as an alliance. We also do our training. At present, large exercises are taking place in Latvia together with the Allies, 10,000 soldiers are participating – the Allies together with the Latvian Armed Forces. Such exercises, such preparedness exercises, are what ensure that the Alliance is able to respond to all threats. “
The probability is low, but provocations cannot be ruled out
In Latvia this year ongoing military exercises “Namejs 2021” largely coincides with the Zapad training on the other side of the border. Lithuania will also closely follow the course of studies in Russia and Belarus.
“It would be madness, but no one can rule out that there may be military provocations. I hope that this will not be the case, because it is too dangerous, ”admits Lins Linkevičs, the former Lithuanian Foreign Minister and now Lithuania’s Special Envoy.
Lins Linkevičs, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Lithuania
Photo: Gints Amoliņš, LTV
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“I do not think that will happen, but we must be ready for any event, even the worst. The probability is low, but it cannot be ruled out. “
The visible part of the iceberg
At the Lenart Meri Conference in Tallinn, experts also discussed the wider context, recalling that the Zapad exercise takes place a few months after Russia withdrew its armed forces at the Ukrainian border.
“Russia [mācībās] In the spring of 2006, there were more than 100,000 troops on and around Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet plus the Caspian Fleet – these forces are still stationed in the Black Sea. They are a major force, “said General Ben Hodge, a former commander of the US ground forces in Europe, currently working for the US Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
U.S. military policy analyst Ben Hodge
Photo: Gints Amoliņš, LTV
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“Zapad” exercises are now planned, but in fact tens of thousands of soldiers have already performed maneuvers within “Zapad”. A few days of official Zapad training is just the tip of the iceberg. ”
In addition, in August, Russia also conducted joint military exercises with China, with a similar name “Zapad / Interaction 2021”. Although Russia and China are not united in a formal alliance, Moscow and Beijing have increasingly coordinated their military and foreign policies.
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