Asks Norway for support: – Last time there was a war

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Inaugurated political platform

Kuleba can be interviewed by Dagbladet in connection with the inauguration of the so-called Crimean platform. Representatives from over 40 countries, including Norway, met each other for a summit in the Ukrainian capital Kiev on Monday last week.

There, they agreed to work together for a peaceful end to the Russian occupation of the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.

In the interview with Dagbladet, Foreign Minister Kuleba praises Norway for the support Ukraine has received from Norway, but also makes no secret of the fact that the country wants more support, be it material, financial or non-profit.

At about the same time as Russia annexed Crimea, war broke out in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Pro-Russian separatists are fighting Ukrainian authorities in a war that in March last year claimed more than 13,000 lives, according to the UN.

Ukraine’s Norway prayer

The West and Ukraine accuse Russia of supporting the separatists. When the war in Donbass broke out, NATO stated that there were over 1000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine. In 2015 admitted Russlands president Vladimir Putin that Russian military intelligence officers have been operating inside Ukraine.

“Russia does not intend to end its war against Ukraine until they understand the futility and the great cost associated with their efforts to subjugate Ukraine,” Kuleba told Dagbladet.

However, Kuleba does not only point to the war in the Donbass and the annexation of Crimea when he argues for why Norway should support a Ukrainian NATO membership.

– There is reason to expect a deterioration in the security situation in Europe, far more aggressive Russian policy in the Baltics, more serious Russian provocations in the north and increased Russian militarization in the Arctic. For these reasons, we firmly believe that Norway has an interest in Ukraine’s resilience, and in particular an interest in supporting a Ukrainian membership in NATO, says Kuleba.

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Last time there was a war

Basically, NATO is open to all European countries or states as long as they meet a number of requirements. This includes, among other things, that the country has a democratic system of government and the ability to contribute to and in the defense alliance.

Experts today question whether Ukraine meets the specific requirements, and point out, among other things, the unresolved border conflicts and Ukraine’s economy, which is relatively small and with no prospect of significant growth in the near future.

Should Ukraine nevertheless meet those requirements, NATO member states must – unanimously – vote to incorporate a new member state.

Putin’s bid: “You have no soul”

The biggest obstacle in the way of a Ukrainian NATO membership will then be the very reason why Ukraine wants to join the defense alliance: Russia.

This is the third time NATO’s “open door” approach to countries Russia does not want to be part of the defense alliance is being put to the test, according to Iver B. Neumann, Russia expert and director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute.

– For the first time, Russia was weak, and NATO took up a number of earlier Warsawact-land, says Neumann.

The second time there was war.

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Merciless Russian response

Filled with hubris and an exaggerated belief that the United States and NATO would support him, Georgia’s then-president Mikheil Saakashvili launched a military offensive against the breakaway republic of South Ossetia i 2008.

The goal was to take back South Ossetia, which after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 declared itself independent of Georgia. A war between South Ossetia and Georgia ensued, to which Russian soldiers eventually joined as peacekeeping forces.

When the Russian peacekeepers were hit by the Georgian offensive, Russia responded. Not only did they drive the Georgian army out of South Ossetia, they crushed it and drove it all the way back to the capital Tbilisi.

The man we fear most: – Naturally

It only took Vladimir Putin’s Russia five days.

In the years before the offensive, Saakashvili’s Georgia had been embraced by then-US President George W. Bush, who was trying to push a Georgian NATO membership through into the alliance.

Germany and France were skeptical, and delayed the process.

Yet the embrace of the American president was so warm and the praise for the new Georgian democracy so great, that many analysts believe that Saakashvili led him to believe that Bush would come to his rescue.

Bush, the United States or NATO never did that. After all, Georgia was not a member of the alliance.

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Reassure or deter

The dilemma for NATO member states is the same towards Ukraine today, as it was Georgia then, points out Russia expert Neumann.

– The point of defense alliances is to increase security for the participants. If an alliance does something that does not increase, but decreases security, it acts against its purpose. So the NATO members sit there and weigh the pros and cons. Given Russia’s increasingly aggressive policies, which include acts of war, one has a choice: calm down by not addressing Georgia and Ukraine, or deter by doing so, Neumann said.

If one chooses to include, for example, Ukraine in NATO, the member countries must be sure that they can “give their share” and that NATO member countries can guarantee Ukraine’s security, according to Neumann.

– Given the situation in northern Georgia and in eastern Ukraine, there is uncertainty about both of these conditions. That is why Norway and other NATO countries say as little as possible about the matter, says Neumann.

Russia and Ukraine expert Tor Bukkvoll, a researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI), agrees with Neumann’s analysis.

– The Crimean platform seeks to reunite the Crimean peninsula with Ukraine. Is not that race run?

– Yes, so far the race has been run, but I see a point in what Ukraine does: They keep the question alive, and if no one talks about it, the feeling will at least be that the race has been run. Russia has a goal that this question is put to death, and all such initiatives, it prevents, Bukkvoll answers.

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UD: – Values ​​Ukraine

When asked by Dagbladet whether Norway will support a Ukrainian NATO membership, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs answers a lot, but not a clear “yes” or “no”.

– Norway values ​​Ukraine’s significant contribution to Euro-Atlantic security. Ukraine is a close partner of NATO and has contributed to several NATO-led operations. Ukraine has access to expanded defense cooperation with NATO (EOP) and a collaboration on reform (ANP), in addition to a comprehensive support package, says State Secretary Audun Halvorsen (H) in a statement to Dagbladet.

He points out that Norway and NATO stand by their decision from the summit in 2008, when NATO member states agreed to support a future Ukrainian NATO membership.

– This is a matter that requires unanimity in the alliance. We encourage Kiev to continue the long-term reform work, says Halvorsen.

The State Secretary was Norway’s envoy to the summit in Ukraine on Monday last week.

– Norway has consistently condemned Russia’s illegal occupation of the Crimean peninsula. The militarization of the peninsula and the serious human rights violations are very worrying. It is therefore natural for Norway to participate in the Crimea platform, to help keep Crimea high on the international agenda, says Halvorsen.

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