TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Data collected from NASA spacecraft visits to asteroid Bennu which reveals that future generations will have to keep an eye on the massive space rock as it passes through Earth in the 22nd century.
Para peneliti menggunakan informasi dari misi Osiris-Rex yang menghabiskan lebih dari dua tahun mengorbit, mempelajari dan bahkan mengambil sampel Bennu untuk mendapatkan ide yang lebih baik tentang jalur masa depannya melalui tata surya bagian dalam.
Mereka menemukan kemungkinan batu selebar 1.700 kaki (518 meter) itu akan berdampak pada planet kita di masa depan sebenarnya sedikit lebih tinggi dari yang diperkirakan sebelumnya. "Kemungkinan dampak tetap kecil," kata Davide Farnocchia dari Pusat Studi Objek Dekat Bumi (Cneos) NASA sebagaimana dikutip CNET, Rabu, 11 Agustus 2021.
Probabilitas itu sekitar 1 dalam 1.750, atau 0,06 persen, antara sekarang dan tahun 2300, dan kita dapat mengesampingkan kemungkinan dampak antara hari ini dan 2135. Itu adalah tahun Bennu akan lebih dekat ke Bumi dibandingkan bulan pada September.
Farnocchia explained there was no threat of a collision during the close, but prior to Osiris-Rex, there was some significant uncertainty about how some effects, such as our planet’s gravity, could alter Bennu’s path, which might make further impacts more likely.
The research team used the Osiris-Rex data to look at everything from the possible influence of the spacecraft itself (the model says it didn’t change the asteroid’s path), to the tiny force that the sun’s heat can exert on small objects, called the Yarkovsky effect.
“The effect on Bennu is equivalent to the weight of three grapes constantly working on the asteroid,” said Steve Chesley, senior research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “Small, yes, but significant when determining Bennu’s likely future impact over the decades and centuries to come.”
Farnocchia, Chesley and several other colleagues wrote a study on Bennu’s future travels which was published in the latest issue of the journal Icarus.
Basically, the new research allowed humanity to continue to dispel Bennu’s anxiety even further. We can now say with confidence that there is nothing to worry about until 2135, and probably nothing to worry about until at least 2300, but you can bet that researchers in the coming years will be closely watching the asteroid’s itinerary for September. 2182.
Specifically, September 24, 2182, is the single most significant date in Bennu’s itinerary as it has a 0.04 percent chance of impacting Earth on that day. Another way of looking at it, of course, is that there’s a 99.96 chance it won’t hit us. “We shouldn’t worry too much about it,” Farnocchia repeated. “We have time to keep track of the asteroid.”
CNET | EXTREMETECH | EZ
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