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– One of the most painful things about the election result in 2017 was the decline in the north, Jonas Gahr Støre repeated several times on his courtship trip in Troms and Finnmark.
That says a lot, all the time Støre also lost his job as prime minister during the election campaign four years ago.
Now the Labor leader is doing everything in his power to prevent Erna Solberg from taking another election winner. In the polls, exactly what looks promising.
Everything points to a change of government despite the fact that the Labor Party is facing one of its worst elections in history.
But in the north, the decline seems to continue, and on September 13, political history can be written.
Since World War II, 19 parliamentary elections have been held. Labor has been the largest party in all three northernmost counties – every single time. The norm is that they outclass the rest of the field.
One month before the election, the Center Party is largest in the Troms and Nordland constituencies. In Finnmark, the Labor Party is breathing heavily in the neck.
The trend from the last elections follows:
- In the parliamentary elections in 2017, the Labor Party declined by more than 7 percentage points in the three northernmost counties.
- In the county council elections in 2019, the Socialist People’s Party rose 15.4 percentage points in Troms and Finnmark, while the Labor Party fell by as much as 12 percentage points. In Nordland, the Socialist People’s Party rose 15.4 per cent, while the Labor Party fell 9.2 per cent.
- On the average of the opinion polls this month, Sp is largest in Nordland and Troms. Labor is still the largest in Finnmark, shows an overview on the website Pollofpolls.
Controversial merger
In Kirkenes, Støre was welcomed with fish soup at Rune Rafaelsen’s home. The former mayor of Sør-Varanger is one of the region’s most influential Labor politicians in recent decades.
When he was elected mayor in 2015, the Labor Party received more than half of the votes. Four years later, he was re-elected, but support fell by 13.4 percentage points.
Rafaelsen himself believes that he was stung for the attitude to the insulted county merger between Troms and Finnmark.
– I said that it was not so interesting for me, the most important thing was that the tasks were solved, he says.
Voters did not agree.
Where the Center Party immediately emerged as a strong opponent of forced marriage, many voters experienced that the Labor Party faltered.
Støre thinks many in the north wondered where the Labor Party ended up after the election defeat in 2013. Then Jens Stoltenberg had to resign after eight years as prime minister.
– People experienced that our mayors and county politicians should implement decisions made by a bourgeois government, he explains.
– Many words, little content
– The population is declining throughout northern Norway. It is quite clear that the medicine you give is not good enough, says Greger Mannsverk.
Aftenposten meets the director of the Kimek shipyard. With 80 jobs, there is a cornerstone company in Kirkenes.
On 1 January, there were approximately 2,000 fewer inhabitants in northern Norway than the year before. Status was the same the year before. Nordland, Troms and Finnmark are struggling with more and more elderly residents. Birth rates are low. The decline has caused more people in the north to sound the alarm.
Mannsverk has seen promises from parties and governments of different colors. He believes the differences have been small after all.
The Labor Party and the previous gang made a Northern Norway message, just as this government has done. You world there are many words, but completely without content! What you need is finances. Say it in money. Not in words, says the business leader.
–Lack of doctors and midwives
In the course of two packed days, Støre tried to convince the northerners that the Labor Party is once again reliable.
Espen Rafaelsen said that Sør-Varanger municipality lacks more GPs.
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Mother of three Hanne I. Noste from Nesseby said that she had not had a companion midwife on the long drive to two of the births.
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Støre believes that insecurity means that many may refuse to live in the north.
A closed mine in Kirkenes may get new operations. It was the location when Støre promised increased investment in the extraction of Finnmark’s rich mineral resources.
At scenic Senja, the Labor Party leader told about the party’s national tourism plan. He also managed to peel shrimp and promise increased investment in fishing and aquaculture.
The many possibilities
The sharp decline in the north is extra painful because Støre believes that the relationship has always been special between the region and the party.
– The Labor Party was the leading political force in the north after the war. It was about safeguarding the rights of ordinary people, improving living conditions and developing housing and local communities that were destroyed, he says.
Støre believes the region has completely unique resources.
– Politics is important to be able to take advantage of those opportunities. It’s the same today, but the solutions are different.
– What is important in the north now?
– In the program, we point to industry and power, to infrastructure related to ports, roads and railways, as well as the competence of universities and the development of decentralized education. The opportunities for increasing activity and jobs in tourism are great.
–Støre will make demands
Several grassroots actions in Finnmark have protested against developments in the fishing industry. They want more jobs on land and demands that the large boats must deliver more of the fish for processing locally.
Industry leader Mannsverk, for its part, will demand that local companies receive parts of the contracts when installations are built in, for example, the oil and gas industry.
– In recent years, Norway has been too reluctant to make demands for local ripple effects, says Støre. He wants to change that.
Mannsverk also points to the scheme no employer’s contribution in North Troms and Finnmark. He believes the scheme is being undermined by companies in the south also avoiding the tax when they have activity in the north.
The result is that they fly in commuters, while the region needs permanent residents.
– If we get a new majority, we must have a full review of the state’s instruments and ensure that the regional instruments work as they should, Støre promises.
On September 13, he will receive the answer to whether the voters want a new government.
And whether the people in the north have found their way back to the Labor Party.
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