According to the data of the CSO, between 2010 and 2020 the proportion of people under the age of 18 in the population decreased from 18% to 16%, the proportion of people aged 40-59 who are no longer likely to have a child from 28% to 30%, the proportion of those over the year increased from 22% to 26%. The data do not even include the 350,000 people who have gone abroad in the meantime, typically under the age of 50.
Aging and depopulation are not just a national problem:
many settlements are affected not only by international but also by internal emigration, GKI wrote.
The analysis also showed that settlements where the juvenile population (under 18) make up at least a quarter of the permanent population are unlikely to be at risk of depopulation in the long run; (with current trends unchanged). However, in terms of population decline
municipalities where the proportion of minors is less than 15% are particularly at risk
(one-fifth of the municipalities). If there is no significant demographic rearrangement, the existence of the settlement may be endangered in 5% of the settlements (147 settlements, where the proportion of minors is below 10%).
Many settlements are also at serious risk of aging. In one-fifth of the settlements, 30% of the permanent population is over 60 years old. The aging settlements are mainly in the country they are concentrated in the northern, north-eastern part of the lake and in the eastern part of Lake Balaton. However, the villages are in the most difficult situation. The average age of people living in villages (42 years) varies between two extremes. In 91 villages the average age was under 35 (these are mainly in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg and Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén counties), while on the other side there were 42 settlements in 2020 where the average age was over 50 years. They are mainly found in Vas and Zala counties. Villages are typically younger around large cities, as high urban housing prices cause young people to move to agglomerations if they can.
One-fifth of the settlements (645 settlements) have a population of 300 or less. These municipalities are particularly at risk, with 114 such settlements accounting for 10% or less of juveniles.
It is unlikely that these settlements will survive without targeted rural development programs in addition to current trends.
In the long run, it is important to take into account the impact of aging settlements on health and social care. This will be a serious challenge for the Hungarian healthcare system in the future, as in the last one year alone, the number of GP practices where operation has to be solved by substitution has increased by 233. And we have to wait years for social, residential institutional places, while the demand for them is constantly growing. And this suggests that in a significant proportion of municipalities, this should be spent on this (health and social care) rather than on sports and credit or other prestige investments. It would also be much more practical to renovate substandard roads at a fast pace (to reach specialist clinics and hospitals) than to build new expressways, unused railways, GKI added.
Cover image source: Shutterstock
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