The Taliban is not a tightly run organization. They cover a range of local groups that operate fairly independently. “They know their own region and are in the capillaries of society,” says Goos Hofstee, researcher at the Clingendael Institute. “They have quite a lot of independence locally and don’t always agree with each other.”
Leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada is above all an unapproachable spiritual leader. The communication lies with a few spokespersons, who according to Hofstee mainly speak for the international stage. “What they say about women or peace is different from what they actually want. The Taliban have never fully adhered to an agreement.”
While the Taliban sometimes gives the impression, they have not softened over the past twenty years. “They still want an emirate where sharia applies and women are not allowed to go out on their own.”
Limited support
Estimates of the size of the Taliban militants range from several tens of thousands to 85,000 fighters. It is clear that they are losing out in terms of size against the Afghan army, which consists of more than 300,000 troops. But while the military has advanced weapons and an air force, it is poorly structured. Many of them are also less motivated and less loyal than Taliban fighters, Hofstee says.
Sahar Jahish does not think the Taliban enjoys much popular support. “Especially in rural areas, people are forced to live under the Taliban, but that doesn’t mean they support it.”
Afghanistan expert Willem Vogelsang, who lived in Afghanistan for a long time, also noticed relatively little support for the Taliban. “Most do not want a Taliban regime. But many are becoming demoralized as Western soldiers leave and cities are threatened,” he said in the statement. NOS Radio 1 News. “It’s a bit of a sinking ship.”
Shariarechtspraak
The exact goals of the Taliban in the current advance is not entirely clear, says Jahish. “Last month it was said that they want some detainees released and the names of leaders removed from the UN sanctions list.”
In 2019, when then-President Trump announced an accelerated withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan, we made this explainer video about the Taliban:
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