What you should know
- The delta variant has been found in 83% of the New York City positive samples studied, up from 72% in the last health department report and 57% in the previous week.
- That strain is now the dominant one in New Jersey as well.
- Existing vaccines have shown effective protection against the variant, although the government and vaccine manufacturers now say booster shots will be needed soon.
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NEW YORK – The highly communicable delta variant continues to expand through New York City, now accounting for 83% of all positive samples, and all of the city’s key indicators are moving in the wrong direction.
The situation is deteriorating so rapidly, in fact, that as of Friday, the city’s five boroughs now meet CDC guidelines to be considered “high transmission” areas where additional precautions, including masking, must be taken. universal interior.
The most probable new confirmed cases increased 25% in the city compared to the previous week, and 70% compared to the previous two weeks. The seven-day moving averages for overall positive tests, positive tests as a percentage of all tests, hospitalizations, and deaths are all higher than the 28-day averages, suggesting a steep curve.
To be sure, there are some slight signs of optimism: Daily new case totals finally fell a bit this week after weeks of steady increases. Vaccines are also on the rise, driven by the city’s offer of $ 100 for every first dose, as well as new measures that increasingly shut off daily life to the unvaccinated.
But the fight against the delta variant is nowhere near over, it is just beginning, as Mayor Bill de Blasio and other city leaders have made clear.
An unpublished presentation from the CDC, obtained by NBC News, underscores the increasing severity of the situation: An estimated 35,000 symptomatic infections per week nationwide among those who are already fully vaccinated.
(Still, the unvaccinated are eight times more likely to become infected and 25 times more likely to be hospitalized or die, according to the CDC.)
As of Friday, the delta variant that first devastated India before spreading globally, and is believed to be much more contagious than the widely tracked first alpha variant, accounts for 83% of city samples tested in the last four weeks, according to the latest weekly data from the city health department.
It took just 14 days for delta to jump from the fourth most common COVID strain in the city to the first, first overtaking the so-called New York City strain that initially emerged in Washington Heights before spreading to other locations as well as to others of fast propagation. variants that first emerged in the UK and Brazil. These last two “variants of concern” now account for less than 10% of new city cases.
As the delta expands, worsening what the CDC has called an “unvaccinated pandemic,” nearly all of the key metrics are getting worse in New York City; It’s not approaching the city’s darkest days yet, but it’s still increasing.
Over the past two weeks, the percentage of people who are tested positive for the virus has nearly doubled and is now nearly 3.3%.
Pandemic of the unvaccinated
Delta, the variant that was first found in India and is now found in at least 104 countries, has dramatically increased its prevalence in the US over the past month, and now accounts for more than 80% of samples tested, according to the CDC.
Scientific evidence has shown that delta spreads much more easily than previous strains of the virus and causes more severe outcomes for those infected, prompting new efforts at all levels of government to vaccinate people if they haven’t been.
Officials now believe that the delta variant may be more contagious than the common cold and as contagious as chickenpox, well known to generations of parents as one of life’s most tractable viruses.
Vaccinated people infected with delta can have the same viral load as an unvaccinated infected person and be just as contagious, the CDC says.
The World Health Organization, which has called it the “fastest and best fit” strain so far, expects it to become the dominant strain globally.
Given the relatively small subset of positive samples sequenced to evaluate possible strain variations, both the CDC and local experts believe that the prevalence of delta, which is classified as a variant of concern, is much higher than reported.
The variant is blamed for an increase in cases in the United States that has seen new cases confirmed daily multiply by six since July 1 – now more than 120,000 people a day test positive nationwide, again to the levels last seen in early March. While daily hospitalizations and deaths remain comparatively low, those are lagging indicators and may increase as the delta spreads into unvaccinated areas.
The latest data from the CDC shows that they are already increasing.
“There is a message that is very clear: this is turning into an unvaccinated pandemic,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said recently. “We are seeing outbreaks of cases in parts of the country that have low vaccination coverage because unvaccinated people are at risk.”
The White House says the Biden administration believes cases will continue to rise in the coming weeks due to viral spread within communities with low vaccination rates.
Existing vaccines are expected to protect people against delta and other variants of concern that have emerged, but with less than 60% fully immunized, increased delta transmissibility and associated risk have renewed concerns.
The situation is so urgent that New York City will now pay unvaccinated people $ 100 to get their first dose at a city-run site. Starting in mid-September, vaccinations will be required to dine indoors, work out in a gym, or attend any type of indoor entertainment.
The city has also expanded its referral bonus program for local nonprofits and has been acutely focused on encouraging private practicing physicians to encourage their patients who have not yet been vaccinated, for whatever reason, to be administered now.
Now is an opportunity to sustain the city’s progress against COVID-19, says De Blasio, and take advantage of the effectiveness of the existing vaccine to reduce the spread of the delta.
Across the state, new daily COVID counts are closer to 3,000 in recent days than the roughly 300 to 400 the state was reporting in early July. Daily deaths, for now, have remained low.
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