That is what the bank states in its latest housing market monitor. In 2022 house prices will not increase by 1, not by 2.5, but by 5 percent, is the bank’s estimate.
No doomsday scenario
The economic outlook is much more favorable than a year ago, which is reason for ABN Amro to raise the forecast. During the second lockdown, the economy fell less than during the first. Also have the extensive support measures of the government did their job.
On balance, the economic damage is therefore less high than feared. It also appears that unemployment will not rise as fast as previously forecast. Last year, the doomsday scenario of a sharply rising unemployment another reason for ABN Amro to lower the housing market estimate.
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The already sky-high house prices are also being pushed up because there are very few homes for sale: only 15,500 houses in the second quarter.
Scarcity in the housing market
Houses that come up for sale change owner within 3.5 weeks on average. By comparison, the average of the past 15 years is about 11 weeks.
Confidence in the housing market, after an initial dip due to the corona crisis, has quickly recovered, sees ABN Amro. The basis does change under this trust; it increasingly relies on the positive sentiment among home sellers. In view of the house prices and the lead time, they are doing good business. The mood is less cheerful among buyers.
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The number of transactions was still high in recent months, but will decline in the course of this year and 2022, ABN Amro believes. Between January and May, 102,000 existing homes were purchased. That is 10,000 more than the previous record, which dates back to 2017.
Number of transactions falls
This plus was mainly caused by the reduction in the transfer tax, as a result of which many buyers only closed the deal in 2021. The introduction of the limit of 400,000 euros caused many buyers to bring the transaction forward.
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Nevertheless, ABN Amro considers there is a good chance that the number of transactions will fall this year, writes housing market economist Philip Bokeloh in the monitor.
The supply is small and the possibilities to move on are limited due to the lack of housing. He does not see a buying boom such as in the summer of 2020.
No money with the municipalities
With regard to the lagging housing development, Bokeloh also states that although there is more clarity about where these homes should be built, municipalities often still lack the financial resources to actually realize this construction. For example, there is no money available to approve building plans and prepare land for construction.
In recent years, the central government has outsourced all kinds of tasks to municipalities, Bokeloh explains, without compensating for this. As a result, the municipalities are now short on cash and have to cut back on their expenses.
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