The “Three Seas” initiative, of which Bulgaria is an active member and currently chairing, provides serious opportunities for our country. The prospect for our country is great, as there is much to do and improve. Only the planned projects for the development of transport, energy, digital, etc. infrastructures would bring our country tens and even hundreds of billions of euros of investment, according to various estimates. And after their implementation, Bulgaria will become an even more attractive place for new investments that will improve the quality of life in our country, and would solve a bunch of existing problems to date.
If the “Three Seas” projects are implemented, it will be a huge step forward for the entire Eastern European region, which will enable it to catch up with the economic development of Western Europe, as well as the standard of living there. For all this to happen, however, business opportunities must be given to develop, to generate added value, through which the much-needed financial flows will appear both for the countries from the Baltic to the Black and Adriatic Seas, and for the population in them. It is in this way that the standard of living of these 112 million people living in the 12 countries of the initiative will be raised. This is the general conclusion that united almost all participants of the international conference “Three Seas – Unity, Innovation, Connectivity” held in Sofia. The other is that Greece must join the initiative, which is currently the missing country, in order to be able to connect fully from its northern end to the southernmost region of Eastern Europe.
Bulgaria’s connection with its neighbors – great challenges, but also opportunities
In fact, it is the north-south connectivity that is the main problem for the region. Both in terms of transport and energy and digitalisation. At the moment, in the region of the “Three Seas” initiative, with rare exceptions, infrastructure is being developed mainly in the east-west direction, said during the conference Petar Dikov from the Institute of Urban Planning, who was also Sofia’s chief architect for many years. Evidence can easily be found even just by looking at the road maps – the highways: Both in our country and in the region of “Three Seas”, mostly connections are built in the east-west direction, and those in the north-south direction are on “Soon it is necessary to pay serious attention to the development of infrastructure in this direction,” he said.
And although this is obvious, it turns out that in the east-west direction there are also large gaps in time. One of the main ones is the lack of adequate transport infrastructure between Bulgaria and Northern Macedonia, even Albania, former Skopje Ambassador to the EU Andrei Lepavtsov said during the conference. Although our southwestern neighbor is neither part of the European Union nor of the “Three Seas” (only EU countries are members of the initiative), the missing corridor №8 is of key importance both for our region and for the initiative, and for Europe. generally. It has been talked about for several decades, but it still does not exist as a road or rail link between the Adriatic and the Black Sea, and this is a serious problem. “If you decide to travel by train the distance between Skopje and Sofia, you will have to go first to Nis and only from there to take the Bulgarian capital,” Lepavtsov said. According to him, it does not make sense for there to be no direct railway connection between two neighboring countries. At the same time, there is a lack of adequate land, as the existing connections at the three border checkpoints are two-lane. There are also planned and semi-built new border checkpoints, but first, there are no or only partially built roads on both sides of the border, and second, according to the plan, they will also be two-lane. So, serious opportunities for freight transport between Bulgaria and Northern Macedonia cannot be said to date.
According to Lepavtsov, there are clear historical reasons for this state of connection between the two countries. In Yugoslav times, transport policy was conducted by Belgrade, not Skopje. And, of course, in the Serbian and Yugoslav capitals at the time, there was no will to build an adequate connection between Bulgaria and Macedonia. In addition, in the first years of independent Macedonia, it was also not entirely clear to the authorities whether there should be good transport links with Bulgaria, Lepavtsov explained. According to whom, things are already changing.
Things are not much different for Bulgaria in terms of our connection with Romania, which is of key importance for the implementation of not only transport projects within the “Three Seas” initiative. Yes, we have two bridges across the Danube, through which land and rail connections are made, but they are definitely insufficient, and the condition of the roads and approaches to the facilities on both sides of the border are not in a particularly flourishing condition. Both Bulgarian and Romanian experts share the view that more bridges should be built between the two countries in order to develop trade and business both between the two countries and in the entire north-south direction within the “Three Seas”. Both Petar Dikov and the President of the Bilateral Bulgarian-Romanian Chamber of Commerce Doru Dragomir note that the bridges over the Danube between our two countries are incomprehensibly small. Dikov gives an example of how there are 7 bridges over the river in Vienna alone. Dragomir emphasizes that along its entire length they are a total of 350, and on the 450-kilometer part between Bulgaria and Romania – only two.
Although better than our northern neighbor, the connection with Greece is also not at the required level. There are already indications that it will join the Three Seas initiative, and everyone, both politicians and experts, is of the opinion that this must happen in order to complete North-South connectivity in Eastern Europe. Yes, it is true that several new border checkpoints have opened in recent years, but they, as well as those in northern Macedonia, have two-lane roads that are designed to serve more car traffic. Only the “Tower-Promahon” already has a wider road, but everyone knows what columns of cars and traffic jams there are in the summer, and quite often on weekends. That is why the experts from the conference in Sofia, as well as the politicians, strongly emphasize that the transport infrastructure of Bulgaria both to the north and to the south must be seriously developed. This includes the completion of the Struma highway through the Kresna Gorge, the highway from Sofia to Vidin, the widening of the road from Ruse through Veliko Tarnovo, Stara Zagora, to make an adequate connection with the large port of Alexandroupolis. In parallel with these projects, high-speed rail lines must be built to take part of the freight and especially the transit. But at the same time, it is imperative that we complete our east-west connection. At the moment, only the Trakia highway is intact, although there are sections with serious problems. The Trakia railway is still missing. The Hemus highway is also missing, as well as a high-speed railway. a line running parallel to it. The development of the ports in Varna, Bourgas and some of the Danube ports is also of key importance. As well as the modernization of the railway. the Ruse-Varna line, which is the oldest in the Balkans and the most direct route from the Danube to the Black Sea by land. All this, as well as other projects to build and expand the existing transport, and not only, infrastructure does not necessarily happen to develop the regions and get rid of poverty, is the general opinion.
Hundreds of billions of projects are waiting to be realized
Bulgaria can attract, literally, billions of euros of investments in this direction. But things don’t end there. As a result of these investments in the development of infrastructure in the regions through which it passes, new businesses will be created, new enterprises will be built, there will be a need for a lot of labor. And all this will bring more funds for companies as well as for the state and the population.
Nearly 550 billion euros will be needed to implement transport projects under the Three Seas initiative, according to Jan Stilinski, chairman of the board of the Polish Association of Employers in the Construction Industry. And only within the current decade. He estimates that the 12 member states of the Three Seas have projects worth 165 billion euros for land infrastructure alone. Separately, investments of 15 billion euros are planned in water transport by 2030. Another 100 billion euros must be invested in the construction, development and modernization of an existing railway. infrastructure. Another 12 billion euros will be needed to implement air transport projects. The development of electricity connectivity will cost 75 billion euros and gas – another 20 billion. For the latter, it should be noted that a significant part of this amount directly concerns Bulgaria, as the projects are mainly for the construction of interconnectors to connect Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria. The construction of 5G networks and other projects for digital connectivity between the countries of the “Three Seas” will require about 130 billion euros in investment, according to Jan Stilinski’s calculations. And together with the development of land transport it is already necessary and actively moving towards its electrification. Therefore, the construction of charging stations for cars and trucks on existing and future highways and main roads in the region will require another 30 billion euros.
Almost all of these planned investments also apply to projects in Bulgaria. Which clearly shows that their implementation will really bring tens of billions of euros in our country. And thanks to them, our country will develop seriously. It is also true that at the moment the investment fund of the initiative “Three Seas”, part of the shareholders of which is the Bulgarian Development Bank (BDB), does not have much money, although there are the first projects, including in our country, in which he has invested. But attracting more capital to the fund will continue, and as President Rumen Radev noted during the conference, “Interest in the initiative is already beyond the borders of the region, with Japan, Britain, South Korea and Qatar already showing interest.”
Essential not only for Eastern but also for Western Europe
The implementation of the projects under the Three Seas initiative is essential for Eastern Europe, and not only for the 12 countries in it. But this is also true for the West, which will also be able to benefit from the development of infrastructure in our region. In fact, the Three Seas is a continuation of the creation of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in the 1990s, which aimed to integrate Eastern Europe more quickly into the post-Iron Curtain. the western world and by joining the european union, the countries of the former eastern bloc to catch up faster with the 15 countries that the EU had at the time, says BDB chief economist Ilia Lingorski. According to him, in the next 5 years the projects under the initiative will be the most important program for the 12 countries. And within the next 10 years, its implementation will be important not only for our region, but for the whole of Europe. Looking even further into the future, by 2035-2050, through the implementation of the Three Seas projects, but also others, the EU and the European economy in nominal terms will be the largest economy in the world, larger than China. and from the United States separately, “said the expert.
Regarding the opportunities for investments in our country, Lingorski notes that only to cover 50% of the lag of Bulgaria and Romania in terms of transport infrastructure will need 550-600 billion euros of investment. If digitalization is added to this, the amount increases even more. The good thing is that the EU Recovery Plan from the pandemic for the countries of the “Three Seas”, with the exception of Austria, provides 205 billion euros, which is not a small amount and will be able to cover part of the necessary funds for projects . It will not be far enough to implement everything planned, but there are opportunities to attract new capital on many other lines.
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