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what is the risk of thunderstorms?

The heat is very present throughout France and our region is no exception. Over the days, the maximums have climbed to reach remarkable levels for the season (even if we are far from the records of 2019). In addition to afternoon temperatures, nighttime temperatures also posted very high levels with, for example, 22.9 ° C at its lowest in Nîmes. These temperatures are approaching the scorching thresholds. The situation will change somewhat next week. Explanations.

If the heat will persist, it will be accompanied by a sea flow. This will have two consequences on temperatures. The strong heat will be pushed back inland while the maximum will be lower on the coasts. The humidity level will increase and this will result in a heavier and more unpleasant feeling. It will begin tomorrow Monday with highs of 36 to 38 ° C in the land.

Map: Météociel

If this southerly flow will be calm at first, the reconciliation of Atlantic depressions could destabilize the air mass with a thunderstorm risk increasing during the week. Indeed, a more low-pressure weather could approach the country in the second part of the week. If the risk of thunderstorms seems inevitable over Spain and a large western half of the country, a thunderstorm spread over our region is more uncertain.

This is a very classic situation for a month of June. The strong heat comes to confront the cooler air brought back by a depression which circulates from the Atlantic towards our country. This context brings one or more stormy bursts over the country with a western half particularly concerned. The most likely scenario is that this unstable weather will eventually shift over our region by the end of next week.

Map: Météociel

As we can see on the rain accumulation map above, the thunderstorms could be numerous and strong in the West but the precipitation should concern us well by next Sunday. In view of the deadline, the details will have to be refined within the next few days. In addition to the rain, temperatures will move downward behind the disturbance. It will be necessary to take advantage of it because the seasonal models are final for the month of July: lots of heat and dry weather!

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