NHC continues to bet on tropical cyclones over Central America

The vast area of ​​low pressures is called turning zone in Central America (Central American Gyre, CAG ). This area of ​​low pressure, on both sides of Central America on the Pacific side and in the Caribbean area, These are usually areas prone to the development of future tropical cyclones named and so it does see in the newsletters of the NHC to 5 days seen.

The general conditions are somewhat favorable in the areas:

• The waters are very warm
• The waters have a high caloric content stored, especially the the Western Caribbean area, she’s very tall
• Vertical wind shear may decrease in the next few days
• La Niña has faded into the Pacific, and is now ENSO neutral, which would tend not to oppose tropical cyclonic development

Western Caribbean Zone

A low pressure zone is expected to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday or Thursday, June 9-10, respectively. Some gradual development will be possible thereafter as the system slowly moves northwest toward Central America.

Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rains in northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras southward later this week and over the weekend.

* Probability of formation in 48 hours … low … close to 0 percent.
* Probability of formation in 5 days … low … 30 percent.

If formed, the system would be named after Bill.

Eastern Pacific Zone

A wide low-pressure depression is expected to form near the southern shores of Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala in a day or two.

Favorable environmental conditions for some development appear thereafter, and a Tropical depression (would bear the name of Carlos) could form at the end of the week as the system slowly moves to the northwest or north.

Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rains in parts of Central America and southern Mexico later this week and over the weekend.

* Probability of formation in 48 hours … low … close to 0 percent.
* Probability of formation in 5 days … average … 40 percent.

Other areas of the tropical Atlantic they are flown over by saharan dust these days and the east african waves are not active yet, therefore there is little chance of a cyclone formation in the central tropical Atlantic.