Months go by and the discourse remains the same: the supply crisis on the new property markets is worsening throughout Languedoc-Roussillon, and listings for sale continue to decline inexorably. In view of the figures for the first quarter of 2021, regional real estate developers are showing their concern.
Because despite a slight upturn in sales, the outlook is not good and the health crisis has only confirmed a supply crisis that began in 2018. Since 2019, the strong inertia in the setting up of operations and a recurring lack of renewal of the land supply is contributing to a collapse in the sale of new housing.
“With deconfinement, we meet buyers and the market is doing well because the purchase of real estate remains a priority for the French,” observes Thierry Lacazio, regional director Languedoc at Vinci Immobilier. But we are worried about the supply, which is correct today but will dwindle very quickly, within six months, due to a shortage of building permits granted in the face of a demand which remains high. “
“Never seen”
In 2020, on the Languedoc-Roussillon perimeter, sales * had decreased by more than 30% compared to 2019. In the 1st quarter of 2021, with 879 homes put up for sale, the drop was 17% compared to the 1st quarter 2020. And regional real estate developers recall that in the first quarter of 2018, production in Languedoc-Roussillon exceeded 2,200 homes, almost three times more.
“If every quarter were to be at this rate, we would build 3,000 to 3,500 homes in 2021, against 7,000 to 8,000 ten years ago, deplores Laurent Villaret, president of the FPI Occitanie Méditerranée. This corresponds to a drop of 60% compared to 2017, but I’m not sure that the demographics have fallen by 60% over the same period! The supply available in Languedoc-Roussillon is today a little below 4,000 housing units: this is unheard of. »
A stock which represents 12.1 months of marketing, against 9.9 months in the 1st quarter of 2020, but “ the commercial supply of collective housing projects down by -3% and that delivered by -22% », Specifies the FPI Occitanie Méditerranée.
The first quarter of 2021 saw the sales volume increase by 32% (1,151 net bookings) compared to the first quarter of 2020, especially driven by the Montpellier metropolitan market (+ 39%) where operations were unblocked after the Covid crisis, proof, according to the promoters, of a present and constant demand.
« If developers are selling less housing, it is not for lack of clients, but for lack of building permits and land! », They still chant today …
Montpellier: red alert on social housing?
In the Metropolis of Montpellier, production is divided by 2.5 in three years and by three over four years. Listings for sale fell by 5% in the first quarter of 2021 (496 homes).
The volume of net sales increased compared to the first quarter of 2020 (+ 39%, with 591 homes sold), but remains well below the first quarters of previous years.
Under the combined effect of the decrease in sales and the importance of withdrawals such as withdrawals of housing from marketing, the available supply increased by 12% compared to the 1st quarter of 2020 (2,194 units VS 1,951) but remains still below the level of 2017 where it flirted with 3,000 homes.
« The offer tends to be replenished but the drop in sales will create a worrying air hole in the commercial offer in the second half of 2021 », Comments Thierry Lacazio.
In the city of Montpeliler alone, sales have fallen by – 42%, while the city weighs for half of the metropolitan market.
« It is therefore worrying, we only put 208 housing units up for sale in the 1st quarter, pointe Laurent Villaret. I remind you that private development produces half of the social housing in the territory. However, 800 housing units over the year, that would make around 200 social housing units for a need of 1,300 per year according to the city’s PLH and seven out of ten people who are eligible … This will generate tension in the social housing market. All social landlords are worried about the production prospects. »
Philippe-Antoine Brouillard, Managing Director of Vestia Promotion, announces that “ the FPI is working on the creation of a joint entity with the OMH (Occitanie Méditerranée Habitat, which brings together 29 social housing organizations in the former Languedoc-Roussillon, Editor’s note) to encourage the production of social housing via public-private partnerships, as is already done in Sète agglomeration for example ”.
New urban planning policy well understood in Montpellier
While Michaël Delafosse, mayor of Montpellier and president of the metropolis, has been at the helm for almost a year, real estate developers say they have understood where the new elected representative wanted to go and how …
« We have acted on its very clear political line and we support it, says Laurent Villaret. The PLH provides for 4,200 housing units per year, and in the city as in the metropolis, we will build in urban environments framed by the SERM in the developed sectors where they ask us to innovate on biodiversity, energy management, materials in current circuits, mobility, etc. The SERM and elected officials presented the 2021-2022 plan to us. In the diffuse, which until now represents 60 to 70% of the total production of housing in the metropolis, there is the desire to no longer urbanize on the plot but in project areas, at the scale of a piece of neighborhood. This suits us because it allows a better acceptability of the projects by the population. But we are alerting to the fact that now, these project areas must become operational. “
Collapse in Béziers and Narbonne
In the medium-sized towns of the former Languedoc-Roussillon, the situations differ greatly.
On Béziers and Narbonne, both exits from the Pinel tax exemption system, the promoters are now talking about a decision which marks ” a lack of total vision of the territory ” who has ” killed the market ».
In fact, in the first quarter of 2021, the two markets were sluggish: no sales and 33 sales in the agglomeration of Béziers, no sales and 26 sales in that of Narbone.
In Sète, the situation is hardly more flourishing (no sales and 81 sales), but the promoters are more optimistic.
« The urban renewal operations in ZAC to come at the eastern entrance to the city are very interesting but long to set up, underlines Laurent Villaret. But they’re going to bring a lot of listings to the market within three years. With the train station and the motorway which provide easy access to Montpellier, the market remains very attractive. “
In the urban community of Perpignan, the market is stable, according to the president of the FPI Occitanie Méditerranée, “ even if we observe a decrease in sales of 74% (51 homes put up for sale against 194 in 2020, Editor’s note) ”. Due to the proximity to the Mediterranean coast, “ the playing field remains attractive ”, assures Thierry Lacazio.
The resurrection of Nîmes Métropole
The good surprise, in the medium-sized towns of the Languedoc region, comes from the city of Nîmes, where renovation operations have generated a new attractive appeal. This real estate market is undoubtedly regaining letters of nobility.
« The profession is working more and more in this territory, and we have many requests from buyers, indicates Laurent Villaret. The volume of listings is still down 19% but many operations are being prepared in Nîmes, which will boost stocks but do not appear yet. We are optimistic that this market will rebalance the production of housing on the scale of the territory, and in particular fill the markets of Béziers or Narbonne … Today, we are on a production of 500 housing per year on the Nîmes agglomeration, but we can earn between 200 and 300 homes per year. The shortage of other markets creates a carry-over effect on Nîmes. “
Prices that go up, again and again
The sector’s black spot in Languedoc-Roussillon remains the upward trend in prices, which is widespread in all markets and which is long-term. In seven years, the average price per m2 of living space (excluding parking) has already increased by 700 euros in the metropolis of Montpellier. And this increase continues in the 1st quarter of 2021 in the metropolis of Montpellier, where the average price per m2 of living space is 4,432 euros (+ 4.6% compared to the 1st quarter of 2020).
The other cities of Languedoc-Roussillon, prices are stable in Nîmes (3,496 euros / m2, – 0.4%), Narbonne (3,263 €, + 0.9%) and Perpignan (3,495 €, + 1.3%) , but are experiencing peak increases in Sète (3,864 euros / m2, + 5.7%) and Béziers (3,778 euros / m2, + 6.4%).
“The solvency of customers is stable, comments Mathieu Massot, director at FDI Promotion. The increase in prices in the Montpellier metropolis redirects investors to other markets such as Sète or Lunel. “
* Source: Adequacy
