Putin announced the provision of a loan of $ 1.5 billion to Lukashenka – Russia is preparing the absorption of Belarus according to Yanukovych’s scenario.
Conclusions on the situation:
1. Lukashenka will not give in to pressure and an air blockade, will continue repressions against all dissidents, the gap between Belarus and the democratic world will grow. Lukashenka will stay in jail until Putin decides to replace him. Yanukovych received $ 3 billion from Putin in securities for breaking European integration. Dictatorial Prize from the Kremlin.
2. For at least a year, Russia will be completely absorbed in the preparation of the actual annexation, and the likelihood of large-scale hostilities in Ukraine becomes unlikely for this period. The bear will digest another piece.
3. The burden on the RF budget is growing. 1.5 billion is far from being the full amount of expenses. Together with subsidies to many regions of the Russian Federation and the occupied Crimea, Transnistria, Abkhazia, Ossetia, the wars in the Donbass, Syria, Africa, this limits the resource of the Russian Federation for its own modernization. What is positive for us.
4. Russia is moving further on the path of confrontation with the West, and this creates not only risks for us, but it also creates enormous opportunities. In the face of the growing threat, we could finally begin structural reforms, and receive much more support from the West. For this, Ukraine needs a new foreign policy strategy for integration into the EU and NATO, which could be lobbied as a plan to obtain a visa-free regime.
5. Ukraine must prepare for a complete breakdown of all types of dependence on Russia and Belarus. First of all, to refuse all types of supplies of fuel and raw materials, as Poland is doing.
6. It’s time to stop empty talk about peace – the absorption of Belarus shows that Putin will not provide any peace to Ukraine. Putin invests the funds of the gas station country in war and conflicts, and he does not need peace in Ukraine – he needs to freeze the conflict on the model of Transnistria in order to maintain the levers of destabilizing Ukraine for a long time. We need a military doctrine that will be aimed at achieving victory in the “frozen conflict”, there are many such situations, and the most striking strategy that has been implemented for 26 years is Nagorno-Karabakh.
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