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On Friday Viktor Orban also tried to go to London in search of “new bilateral relations” for ‘his’ Hungary. But it must not have gone well. Until the evening, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, despite having welcomed him, does not make statements, in total embarrassment at having received a premier who in turn stood out for anti-Semitism, racism, discrimination for minorities and LGBTQ movements and who, shortly before of the trip to Great Britain, he spoke of an “invasion of Muslims”, just to add meat to the controversy in the Kingdom.
Are we talking about an Orban in trouble? Although qualified Hungarian opposition sources call for caution in view of the elections in April 2022, this time the leader of Fidesz, premier in power since 2010, a position he had also held between 1998 and 2002, has no road ahead of him. smooth for yet another success.
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If the elections in Germany in September are in fact European-wide elections, if the presidential elections in France next year will also tell us a lot about the future of the continent, for the umpteenth time with bated breath in the face of generous polls with the nationalist Marine Le Pen, the 2022 electoral appointment in Hungary is not far behind, with due proportions. A reconfirmation of the ultra-right of Orban, a member of the EPP until the farewell of a few months ago, after years of clashes with the moderate part of the European center-right, which however had welcomed him into the team, would tell us that the anti-European and sovereign wind it did not stop even after Donald Trump’s defeat in the United States. Otherwise, if Orban lost the elections, a cycle would close not only for him, but also for his creation Fidesz and his European allies, starting with Matteo Salvini.
Because in recent years Orban has been the reference point of the European ultra-right perhaps more than the French Le Pen, as regards the government in his country and therefore with bargaining power in European fora. And then because of the placement in the EPP, the largest European political family, for how long it lasted. Could it be that his lucky star has entered the downward phase right after the farewell to the Popolari? In fact, since then, Orban has been searching for Salvini with greater intensity, talks about new European groups that have not yet been born, welcomes Santiago Abascal, leader of the Spanish right Vox, who has risen after the elections in Madrid, in Budapest, goes up to London in search of new ‘friends’. What happened?
The polls give his Fidesz more or less on par (49 per cent) with the coalition of six parties that want to challenge him in the elections next year (48 per cent). Heterogeneous alliance, for heaven’s sake, which announced the primary to decide the leadership. Prominent figure the mayor of Budapest, Gergely Karácsony, leader of Dialogue for Hungary, a well-known opponent of Orban, he most of all points to the candidacy for the premiership. But there are other signs that speak of a power with more than a few problems to solve.
Recently, the majority in Parliament was forced to revise the law on NGOs wanted by Orban against alleged financing from abroad, as a result of the ruling of the European Court of Justice that rejected it last June. It is true that, under the new law, the Hungarian Court of Auditors will retain control over non-governmental organizations, but the government nevertheless had to jump over an obstacle. Five days ago, the Hungarian Constitutional Court rejected the law wanted by Orban in 2018 which effectively obliged employees to work overtime and allowed employers not to pay them. And to mention another circumstance that has to do with foreign policy, last Monday, when all the European leaders gathered at the Europa building began the discussion on the sanctions against Belarus for the case of the hijacking and the arrest of the dissident Roman Protasevich, Orban had to take a seat without complaining. Although a friend of Lukashenko, he did not exercise veto rights, as he did a few weeks ago in the Middle East to defend Israel in the clash with the Palestinians. There is that the Minsk case is indefensible: if it had tried, it would have ended up in a clear minority even compared to the other Eastern states. The battle over the Middle East, on the other hand, offered him the tactical weapon of leveraging the natural sympathies for Israel prevalent in much of Europe, from Germany for historical reasons to the East.
In any case, the Belarus case forced him into hiding, taking away from him that stage that usually a leader like him never fails. No declaration on the sanctions decided in the Council, neither in favor nor in dissent. Orban’s last real outcry, along with Polish ally Mateusz Morawiecki, dates back to late last year, when Hungary and Poland vetoed the Recovery Fund to defend the freedom to decline the rule of law as they pleased. . They won, obtaining a sort of pass, packaged by Angela Merkel, so much so that Budapest and Warsaw also hastened to ratify in Parliament and present their national plans: the money of ‘mother Europe’ is never refused. But the Hungarian public opinion is obviously not enough. Or it is no longer enough, despite the closure of anti-government media, such as Klubradio, by a sophisticated system of bureaucratic interlocking artfully developed by Fidesz. There is another issue that could have its weight, even if we are talking about elections in a year’s time and therefore everything must be considered ‘cum fiore salis’. These are the travels of Hungarians abroad this summer.
It sounds like a facetious issue but it is very serious. By mid-May, half of the Hungarian population was already vaccinated, including many in their twenties. The vaccination campaign was a flagship for Orban, compared to the European slowness. The point is that the government of Budapest has chosen to focus it on the Russian Sputnik vaccine and the Chinese Sinovac, rather than on those authorized by the EMA. Orban himself got vaccinated with Beijing’s anti-Covid. But the ‘European covid pass’, which should be operational from July and should allow those who are vaccinated to travel to the Union, is not valid for those who have been immunized with products not authorized by the EMA. Unless the Member States decide otherwise, with appropriate national measures that Brussels allows them to take, in case.
The issue is so crucial in Fidesz’s consensus that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has organized a tour to the capitals of the countries that are favorite holiday destinations for Hungarians. Mission: to beg for consent to let them in. In these days, Szijjártó will be in Lisbon, Madrid, Malaga and London, where Orban himself went to plead the ‘holidays abroad’ cause. It is a topic that Merkel also considered very much in the election campaign for the September vote: it seems that the Chancellor is dedicating herself only to satisfying the wishes and needs of the Germans, to beat the competition of the Greens. Orban is looking after him right now, one year after the vote, evidently convinced that what he has done for the post-pandemic relaxation of his constituents will be remembered for a long time. And maybe the rest will disappear?
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