15-year-old amazes with exact corona forecasts

Kronacher Schüler predicts the 7-day incidence value: A student of the Kronacher Maximilian von Welsch secondary school is as Incidence Expert on Facebook became a local internet celebrity. The 15 year old Maximilian Müller from Schneckenlohe calculate the day before Corona value of the next day out. The young person is surprisingly often correct with his prognoses. “I’m very interested in technology,” he says inFranken.de. The prediction of the expected corona numbers also has a practical reason. “I also like to work out the incidence value to see when I can go back to school. You can then roughly calculate when this will be the case again.”

But how does it all work? “Since the district of Kronach announces the number of new infections every day, I have myself using an Excel formula something assembled, “explains Maximilian. With a so-called If function then let the expected corona value of the following day be calculated. The data required for this is made up of the components Newly infected, recovered and population together. “You take the new infections from the last seven days. And then every time 100,000 and by the number of inhabitants,” explains the teenager.

Incidence forecast for the next day: 15-year-old developed Excel formula

As a rule, his calculations are correct. The exception: “If there is a late registration from Robert Koch Institute gives. But I won’t find out until the next day. “This could happen once.” It can’t really be that I miscalculate myself, “says the secondary school student self-confidently.” Medium- or even long-term forecasts are nevertheless not possible. The reason: “You can’t know: So and so many infections will occur on this and that day,” explains Maximilian. “It’s hard to influence that. Unfortunately, I cannot make long-term prognoses.“

So much for the underlying technology. But how did Maximilian come up with the idea of ​​calculating tomorrow’s incidence value? “Last December, I always saw another user doing that on the district’s Facebook page in the comment area,” reports the young incidence expert. He has been predicting the incidence himself since January.

The 15-year-old has been finding out about current corona events in the region on the district’s Facebook page since the beginning of the pandemic. “I subscribed to the site as a county citizen.” In the meantime he has become a fixture there even among the readership. “In the afternoons I always sit in front of the PC, enter the number and post.” For this it has the district office’s social media team in the meantime thanked Maximilian personally for his commitment.

Kronacher pupil misses classroom instruction: “You are currently missing that very much”

He also got from other Facebook users lots of feedback receive. “In the last few weeks I have only received positive comments and a lot of likes.” At the beginning of his campaign, one or two negative comments were made, Maximilian recalls. “For example, some wrote: ‘What is the point of all this ?!’” However, the 15-year-old incidence specialist was not discouraged by such statements.

“You shouldn’t get involved in such comments. If you read them and get upset about them, it won’t do any good.” The overwhelming number of user comments is, however, extremely positive. Many also thanked him for his corona predictions. His environment is enthusiastic anyway. “They are all very proud of me”, reports Maximilian.

And what is the young person missing in particular during the Corona crisis? “Right now, I miss school the most. I’ve been in distance class since December.” As it currently looks, face-to-face classes will probably be possible again after the Whitsun holidays. “At the moment you miss that a lot,” emphasizes the ninth grader, who is completing the branch of industry at the Maximilian von Welsch secondary school. Maximilian’s favorite subjects there are English, BWR and IT. After his school days he wants Informatikkaufmann – after all, the 15-year-old is very familiar with technology, numbers and formulas.

All information about the current situation in the region can be found in our Corona ticker for the Kronach area.

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