And Wednesday analysis at Bitcoin (BTC), I announced that we should look forward to testing $ 42,000 soon, which almost happened. However, yesterday the exchange rate at the lower end of the resistance band started to react quite badly, which does not mean anything good for the market. For any resistance, we can expect sellers to become aggressive.
And if the edge of resistance is enough to stop the price progress, we know right away that the bears have already achieved this after the first wave of sales. In return, we can conclude that shoppers are quickly without initiative when there is a hint of selling pressure. Between September 2020 and about February 2021, it was exactly the opposite. However, this does not mean that we have not tested the 42,000 USD yet. But the chances are logically reduced.
Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD
As for the daily close, we can clearly see from the graph that there was a negative reaction right at the lower limit of the resistance band. It’s not an Armageddon, but the touch candle closed due to its size with a relatively long upper wick. Therefore, there is no doubt that a rejection has taken place. I was just waiting for something like this so that I could draw a triangular pattern on the graph.
In the overall context, therefore, it is shown in the graph bear flag – not good. Which is not inconsistent with the fact that Bitcoin is trying to create a side balance. The triangular structure is also an equilibrium, just the price development over time asymmetric (asymmetric). One might argue that the drawn triangle is symmetrical, but we are not in geometry class here – perhaps you understand the point.
Anyway, we have a kind of pattern / balance on BTC volumes also indicatewhich are declining very quickly. The market is certainly beginning to realize that something is going on, so a logically substantial part of the participants fit into the standby mode. Due to the size of the unit, it is possible that the course will remain in it for more than a week. Which isn’t that long, so I think it’s worth the wait.
When the $ 30,000 breaks down, it’s clear that the bull trend is definitely over. We no longer have to speculate as to whether there is still a chance of recovery. However, if, on the contrary, we break through resistance, the chances of the bull trend resuming will naturally increase. Personally, I would consider such a price action bull trapbut that’s just my opinion and I can naturally be wrong. Yeah, otherwise the negative reaction came when you touched the dynamic resistance of MA 200 – again confluence.
Indicators
From the daily RSI, it can be implied that the momentum up actually applies, but it is very weak. In those few days of retracement, we didn’t get higher than less than 30 points, which is very little. This just suggests a scenario where the market will be sideways for a while and then it will be seen.
In any case, even at the daily RSI, we still have plenty of room to decline. However, this will mean for Bitcoin that the spring has been extremely compressed again. There is still a chance of a bullish cross on the MACD, but without a breakout through $ 42,000, the signal has no weight.
Current situation at 4H TF BTC / USD
As for the intraday chart, Bitcoin proceeded relatively nicely until the course did not get close to the EMA 55 – again the one confluence. I would just say that such an early negative reaction was mainly due to the fact that the bears shorted the contact with dynamic resistance and at the same time it undoubtedly helped them that the MA 200 was tested on the daily chart and we were right at the key resistance.
However, the decline is not yet significant, so it cannot be ruled out that we will not see another attempt at a breakthrough. On the negative side, however, the volumes are terribly low, which suggests rather that side consolidation. We will definitely see a second test of the EMA 55 soon, so it is definitely worth watching the course’s response to touch.
Indicators
Although 4H RSI stays above 50 points most of the time, it is still very close. In fact, the development is quite neutral. There was a bearish divergence on the MACD Histogram that clearly applied. Otherwise, the momentum is quite weak and threatens a bearish cross.
In conclusion
Bitcoin has not yet shown anything significant, nor have we been able to test only the mentioned 42,000 USD, which is not excluded that it will not happen yet. In any case, it is still true that the exchange rate will most likely remain in the range of USD 30,000 – 42,000, and perhaps we will see more movement in one week.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
Bitcoin reacted negatively in the vicinity of key resistance, is a bear’s flag outlined in the graph?
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