Bundesliga News: Cologne or Kiel: Who will get the last BL ticket?

Almost all decisions in the Bundesliga have been made. Only the relegation games on Wednesday and Saturday between Cologne and Kiel are missing. Who will secure the last place in the Bundesliga? What speaks for which team? Sky gives an overview.

Opinions are divided about the football relegation games. For some it is the extra portion of excitement, for others it is the last undeserved straw of the 16th in the Bundesliga, in order to save themselves into the next season in the elite league.

The duel between 1. FC Köln and Holstein Kiel is the next round of the promotion and relegation final, which has been reintroduced since the 2008/09 season. Sky gives an overview of which statistics the supporters of both teams can rely on and which they should rather “overlook”.

Click through: All relegation games since 2009

Cologne’s premiere – Kiel’s second attempt

1. FC Köln “celebrates” its debut in relegation and will want to prevent the seventh relegation since 1998. The Kielers, on the other hand, have had bad experiences with the short season extension. After the 2017/18 season, the Holsteiners failed at VfL Wolfsburg. The first leg went 3-1 to the Wolves. VfL won the second leg 1-0. Now the Kiel want to make it in the second attempt and become the first Bundesliga team from Schleswig-Holstein.

The competitive game balance between Cologne and Kiel


Competitive games	Wins 1. FC Cologne	Delivered	Wins Holstein Kiel	Tore
2	2	0	0	4:1

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But experience has shown that the probability that the second division club will swap places with the Bundesliga club is relatively low. Since the relegation was reintroduced, the second division team has only been promoted three times in twelve attempts. In 75 percent of the cases, the Bundesliga team managed to stay in the league. Union Berlin (2018/19) is the last second division team to climb through the season extension.

Relegation balance of the Bundesliga clubs since 2008/09


Games	Siege	Delivered	Defeats	Goal difference	Relegation
24	11	10	3	29:21	9

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However, the Berliners only managed to do that with two draws and the away goal rule. The chances of victory for the second division club seem to be slim anyway. Fortuna Düsseldorf is the last second division team to win the relegation. That was 2-1 against Hertha in 2012. Since then there have been nine draws and eight defeats.

Is Kiel taking advantage of Cologne’s weakness at home?

So gloomy prospects for the Kiel. Time to give the KSV fans some courage. Because the North Germans can always hope to beat the Cologne team away in the first game. The “Effzeh” was anything but strong at home this season. Cologne only won three games in the RheinEnergie Stadium.

There are five draws and nine defeats. Only twice did they keep the “zero” at home. Kiel, on the other hand, is difficult to play away from home. Seven wins and six draws gave the storks 27 away points and thus almost 44 percent of the total point yield.

In addition, the Cologne team had the third weakest offensive in this Bundesliga season (34 goals), while the Kiel team had the best defense in the second division (35 goals conceded). However, that does not mean that the KSV only focus on the defensive. 57 goals scored mean that the Kielers landed fifth in the most accurate second division clubs.

What is Kiel doing with the DFB Cup experience?

Something that the Kielers can also rely on is the experience they were able to gain in knockout games this season. The storks bowled FC Rielasingen-Arlen, FC Bayern Munich, SV Darmstadt and Rot-Weiss Essen from the DFB Cup. Only in the semi-finals was BVB two sizes too big for Ole Werner and his team.

Statistics or not, for Kiel it will primarily be important to ignore the negative experiences from the past two games. Finally, the KSV awarded two match balls and thus steered themselves into the relegation. Cologne, on the other hand, goes into the season finale with the sense of achievement from the Schalke game.

Even if, according to statistics, the Cologne team are the favorites in the relegation, it should be mentioned that the Kiel team never lost three competitive games in a row this season. If it stays with the series, the storks lay the foundation for becoming the 57th Bundesliga team in the league’s history.

More about the authors at skysport.de

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Bundesliga News: Cologne or Kiel: Who will get the last BL ticket? | Soccer News