The fighting across the Gaza Strip takes place on Saturday on the sixth day and with undiminished force. In step with rockets and air strikes, the fear that the conflict will break out in full war also increases.
And a possible solution this time, it seems to be far away, according to Professor Middle East expert and UiO professor Hilde Henriksen Waage.
– It does not really look as if any of the actors who could have helped stop the war have known their visiting hours.
US President Joe Biden spoke earlier this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the conversation, Biden said that he hopes the violence in Israel and Gaza will end as soon as possible, but stressed that Israel has the right to defend itself.
– Looks dark on the way forward
There were also separate talks between Biden, Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday, writes NTB.
Abbas is said to have asked Biden to end the “Israeli attacks on Palestinians”, according to AP.
On Saturday night, the news agency AFP reports that Biden has informed the Palestinian leader that “Hamas must stop firing rockets at Israel”.
– In the first place, it is the United States that is close enough to the ally of Israel and can get this conflict into another track. But the Biden administration does not want that, Waage believes, and points out two reasons:
– First, Biden’s focus is elsewhere. He now has a pandemic and a major crisis in domestic politics. Secondly, he has chosen to renegotiate the Iran agreement. So I certainly do not think he intends to touch on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, unfortunately.
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– Learned from Obama’s mistakes
There is also another reason why Biden does not stick his nose out, the professor believes.
When Barack Obama took over the presidency in 2009, he wanted to mark a new policy, and show a difference from his predecessor George W. Bush.
– He took a huge initiative, burned himself terribly and landed with a stomach splash.
– He wanted to reach out to the Arab world, and after two days at work, he announced that he would, actively and aggressively, resolve the conflict between Israel and Palestine and the surrounding Arab countries. I was about to fall off the chair, says Waage.
FEED PROBLEMS: : Former President of the United States, Barack Obama, came early in the presidency with a statement that made Israel react. Joe Biden was vice president under Obama, and an expert believes he has learned from his former boss’s mistakes. Photo: Andrew Harnik / Reuters / NTB
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According to Waage, the result was as feared, and Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by giving a clear message about who decides in the Middle East.
– He also gave a clear message that Israel would not stop building settlements, and did not want negotiations. About the next day, Obama began to “back off” quite cautiously.
Also within the United States, Obama’s desired cleanup in the Middle East presented problems for the newly elected president, who got many against him.
– I think Biden has learned his lesson, which unfortunately is that this conflict should not be touched. It only presents problems. I do not think the United States is going to do anything. Maybe a few more phones, but not something that really works, says Waage.
Without hope – and straight to hell
Biden thinks he is doing his part
However, US expert Hilmar Mjelde at the Norce Research Center believes that Biden’s cautious statements should not be interpreted as meaning that the US is not doing anything about this conflict.
– My impression is that the Biden administration publicly defends Israel’s right to defend itself, but puts pressure on Israel behind closed doors. Biden sees it as a more effective tactic here, he says to Dagbladet.
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Mjelde believes Biden behind closed doors can address what the United States believes is problematic.
Be it Israel’s military conduct or more long – term issues, such as the settlements, which Biden has criticized before. In this way, the United States can function more effectively as a mediator here. At least that’s how I interpret the Biden administration’s approach, he says.
However, Mjelde agrees with Waage’s claim that Biden has enough to lead at home and therefore does not have a desire to be drawn deep into the conflict.
– He has completely different topics on the agenda, both domestic and foreign, says Mjelde.
– The truth smokes first
– Do not care about the UN
Professor Waage therefore believes that the end of visas in this round will be as so many times before.
– For the time being, I think Hamas will continue to fire rockets and Israel will continue with its violent bombing, until Hamas, perhaps through Egypt, asks for a ceasefire.
– Then it will be a few years before this pressure cooker must release steam again, Waage believes.
