Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 0.35% over the past week to 5,995,616. Meanwhile in today’s trade, Monday (3/5/2021) IHSG received positive sentiment from Indonesia’s manufacturing activity data, but the case of the corona virus disease (Covid-19) in India is still a concern, especially after a crowd in the Tanah Abang market.
IHS Markit this morning reported Indonesia’s manufacturing activity as reflected in the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in April soaring to 54.6, which is the highest record in history, surpassing the previous record of 53.2 achieved in March. This means that the manufacturing sector recorded a record in 2 consecutive months, which is good news for the Indonesian economy.
In addition, inflation data will also be released this afternoon. The result polling Reuters showed a 1.46% YoY growth in April, while core inflation was 1.22% YoY. The prediction is higher than the March release of 1.37% and 1.21%.
Meanwhile, market consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia predicts inflation of 0.165% compared to the previous month (month-to-month/mtm).
Meanwhile, compared to the same period in 2020 (year-on-year/ yoy), the inflation rate is estimated at 1.45%. Then annual core inflation is projected to be 1.16% yoy.
Growing inflation can also be good news, because it shows the wheels of business are spinning faster and people’s purchasing power is starting to increase.
However, the Covid-19 case in India has made market players anxious, and global sentiment has worsened.
India is now becoming hotspot just the spread of Covid-19, and became the country with the second highest number of cases in the world. Citing Worldometers, India recorded 402,110 new cases per Saturday (1/5/2021). This is the most recent record, from a series of record cases in more than a week.
The spike in cases in India comes after religious festivals and political campaigns sparked crowds. Indonesia is now starting to get anxious, because at the end of last week there was a crowd at the Tanah Abang market.
Head of the Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, University of Indonesia, Dr. Tri Yunis Miko Wahyono said such a crowd could trigger a big case like what is happening in India today.
“Actually, the conditions in Indonesia are scary. So don’t think the number of cases has decreased, it means that there are fewer people exposed. It’s not like this. In any crowd, the risk of exposure to Covid-19 will definitely increase,” Tri said in a phone call with CNBC Indonesia. on Sunday afternoon.
Technically, the JCI is still “playing around” in the 6,000 level range. The JCI also forms the Descending Triangle pattern, which is a pattern bearish or a downward trend.
JCI had crossed the top line which could have triggered upward momentum, but it fell back and is now in its range.
Meanwhile, the lower limit of the pattern is around 6,890 which will become strong support.
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Graph: Daily JCI Foto: Refinitiv – – |
Stochastic on the daily chart is moving up, even though it is still far from the overbought area (overbought).
Stochastic is leading indicator, or indicators that initiate price movements. When Stochastic reaches overbought area (above 80) or oversold (below 20), then the price of an instrument has the opportunity to reverse direction.
 Graph: JCI 1 Hour Foto: Refinitiv- – |
Meanwhile, hourly stochastic is moving up after previously reaching the area oversold.
The psychological level of 6,000 is now the closest resistance as well as the upper line of the Descending Triangle pattern. As long as it stays below it there is a risk of correction to 5,950. The next support is around 5,920.
Meanwhile, if it returns to it, JCI has the opportunity to reach 6,030. Further resistance in the range of 6,070.
CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM
(pap / pap)
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