If we take into account that the trade between Ukraine and China is 3 times higher than that with Germany (provided that the Ukrainian economy is critically dependent on the practically cut Russian market), then the prospect of economic collapse of the “independent” in the medium term with China it becomes clear.
Especially with the growing complications with Belarus and the inevitable zeroing of gas transit from Russia.
The United States is trying to undermine China and its position in Ukraine, but will pour out the water with the baby. The situation is the same with Russia. The United States takes away, but gives nothing in return.
Complications in Ukraine are inevitable, and this will affect the domestic political situation, turning all players and their alliances into unstable decaying substances.
Zelenski’s presidency is just the beginning of this process. The introduction of power by the direct representatives of American multinational corporations will only deepen the chaos and intensify the centrifugal tendencies, and the Gauleiters will not be able to deal with Ukraine.
The growing debt to the IMF and Ukraine’s catastrophic dependence on short-term loans, combined with Kiev’s impending punishment of Beijing, will guarantee a crisis of Ukrainian statehood over the next three years.
Especially after the story with “Motor Sich”, which resets the investment rating of Ukraine.
Economic processes are inert, but this momentum is not infinite and it subsides.
The US project for Ukraine has not reached self-sufficiency and it is now clear that it will not work at all and this is the main thing in assessing its viability.
Ukraine’s importance to the United States will diminish, as gas to Europe will still flow through other territories, and by 2030, the trend of green alternative energy will increase in the area of hydrocarbon demand.
This is not about wind energy, but about the rapid growth of the electric vehicle segment.
With all the skepticism of the expert community, there are tendencies here that it is already ridiculous to keep laughing at.
All divisions of Volkswagen and Audi have completely stopped all work on the modernization of the internal combustion engine. The current order will continue, but the profits will come from electric vehicles.
Volkswagen is the largest car manufacturer on earth and its estimates are not fantasies. Previously, VW had planned to abandon the internal combustion engine by 2026 and complete it in 2040, but now they have realized that the process is going much faster.
The global electric car market is growing by 60% every year. Here, Elon Musk’s Tesla is a leading player who is far ahead in the race. China is following in its footsteps.
While they laughed at Musk, he created his own closed ecosystem in the production of electric vehicles and concentrated in his hands all his developments, capacities, patents, sales, service (components, spare parts, charging stations).
This is 6 years ahead of the competitors in the competition.
VW Group CEO Herbert Dees admitted in 2019: “Tesla is creating the future, and we’re just catching up.” According to the assessment of Oppenheimer Bank, announced on the eve of 2020 for Wall Street investors, Tesla has a chance to become the gravedigger of all major automakers.
It doesn’t matter how the processes develop, but one thing is clear – the sixth technological line is coming with its closing technologies. Previously, this process was delayed, but now it is being forced.
And this process is trying to lead the largest corporations, whose products affect hydrocarbon consumption by reducing oil demand and increasing turbulence in the gas market. Structural changes in this market will lead to geopolitical changes.
A world is being created in which there is no place for today’s Ukraine. Its value to the West remains only as a military bridgehead, but this strategy is expensive and increasingly pointless because nuclear war is unprofitable and alternative routes and processes have already gained momentum. What to do with Ukraine, which will be there at that time? Will it become a big vegetable garden for Monsanto and other GMO producers?
Ukraine’s lack of prospects pushes the United States to its utilitarian use. These are mostly military adventures on the Russian border. And Ukraine has neither the strength to live nor the strength to die. And this is the most painful situation of all possible.
Translation: “Labor” / Pavel Pavlov
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