Troubled non-bank finance and static development banking

Beyond the optimistic adjustment of the forecasts for the advance of GDP in 2021 by most of the prospective firms -all of them supported by the drag generated by the dynamics of the United States-, the truth is that the domestic market is still very contracted.

For the financial sector in general, in such an environment, there are not many incentives for an early improvement in the demand for credit. Margins have tightened strongly and only because of the flexibility that exists in the accounting rules approved by Juan Pablo Graf’s CNBV, there has not yet been a substantial jump in delinquencies.

However, experts consider that it is a matter of time. It is difficult to kick the boat indefinitely, since although the large financial groups will be able to hold, not necessarily the small banks and not to mention the other intermediaries, so important when it comes to inclusion.

Both sofomes, credit unions and sofipos are not experiencing their best moment this year. The contraction of the credit rhythm in general is maintained. That of sofomes and credit unions of more than 9% and those of sofipos of 1%, although in what is commercial and consumer credit there are double-digit drops.

Many firms are not going to resist, especially since the slack is going to last and with it the recovery of the size of Mexico’s GDP in 2018. The IMEF chaired by Ángel García Lascurain projects that this will be until 2024. In that sense, it is necessary to give by a fact a consolidation process in the financial sector.

As if that were not enough, development banking is very little active. In the midst of the crisis, its portfolio until September barely grew 2.9% and the amount granted for guarantees even fell 4.3%.

Go Nafinsa, led by Juan Pablo de Botton, even has negative numbers in his spill last year. I was talking to him about the tight control that there is from the National Palace to his operations. Any credit over 500,000 pesos must be reported.

In addition, there are totally disappeared institutions such as the National Agricultural Development Fund (FND) led by Baldemar Hernández whose focus is on the delivery of social support. Basically that is right now the priority to the detriment of financial intermediaries, much more restricted in their funding, in the context of a very complicated situation. So this story is just yet to be written.

Outsourcing of questionable bureaucrats

Among the many doubts that still prevail around the subcontracting proposal that a few days ago was reached with the participation of the STPS of Luisa María Alcalde, Presidency with Julio Scherer and the CCE of Carlos Salazar Lomelín is the status that will govern the workers at the service of the State. So far in the only document that has circulated there is no express mention. Obvious a separate handling would be unjustified. The issue is not minor when considering the importance of outsourcing in the performance of the bureaucracy. We will see.

Conago meeting today and Herrera stage

Today there will be a Conago meeting chaired by the governor of Sonora Claudia Pavlovich. In addition to the fact that the vaccination strategy will be reviewed, really poor due to the lack of doses, the presence of the head of SHCP, Arturo Herrera, stands out. It is known that it will evaluate the economic scenario in the context of the best prospects for GDP, due to the impulse from the US, since the internal is to cry. Gross fixed investment until January brings an annual fall of 9.6%, with no signs of improvement and consumption of 5.7%.

Aeroméxico first quarter lackluster

Aeroméxico directed by Andrés Conesa ended the first quarter without brilliance. It carried 24.4% fewer passengers than in the same period last year with a fall of almost 57% in the international segment. The domestic sector decreased 7.6%. Occupancy was only 68.8% vs. 76% in 2020. A blow to tourism from the US and Canada.

@aguilar_dd