A few months ago, things still looked good for supporters of the deal. “When Biden won the elections, everyone was in awe about the Iran file,” says nuclear weapons expert Sico van der Meer of the Clingendael Institute. After all, Biden had said during his campaign that he would revive the Iran deal. “But then he became president and did not. He now says: we want to get back in, but then Iran must keep to the agreements.”
Iran, in turn, believes that the US, which caused the deadlock in 2018, is the first to move and must lift the economic sanctions. In addition, the country wants guarantees that if the Irandeal is set up again, the US will not get out again. “The US had a special position in the 2015 deal. Washington was constantly allowed to choose whether or not to extend the deal. I can imagine Iran saying now: we don’t want that again.”
Synchronized approach
The US previously proposed to lift the sanctions step by step, but Iran does not want that. “It’s about who blinks first,” says Van der Meer. “That is also a matter of honor. But eventually Iran will have to compromise to get rid of the sanctions. Iran is a small player, the US a superpower.”
One option to salvage the deal could be the “synchronized approach,” with America lifting a small portion of the sanctions, while Iran will initiate further curtailment of its nuclear program. Whether that is workable for both parties remains to be seen, says Mohr.
In any case, there is a lot of pressure on the negotiations, because there are presidential elections in Iran in June. The current moderate president Rohani is no longer eligible, so there will be a new president anyway. Van der Meer: “There is a chance that the hardliners will win this time, and they are less keen on a deal with the US, so there is a hurry. If there is no agreement before the elections, it may be too late. “
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