In the field of the global portrait, Jean-Paul Girard, president of Fnaim Isère, considers himself rather happy: “ All the same, we had a good year in Isère, as well as nationally. The drop in the volume of transactions remains very limited, in the order of -6 to 8%, whereas we had experienced four months of stoppage ».
Especially since in recent months, the demand for single-family homes has exploded for certain sectors such as the Grésivaudan valley or the Voironnais country, both located near Grenoble.
“In these two sectors, we no longer have houses for sale and this situation is coupled with a scarcity of production in new buildings, but also on the side of sellers in old ones,” he underlines.
Because in a context of health crisis, the stone still plays a role of safe haven, including on the side of sellers, who tend to postpone their sales plans, while waiting for the economic situation to improve.
A “containment effect” on Haussmanian houses and apartments
Enough to cause a slight increase in the prices of individual houses, of the order of + 5 to 7% depending on the segment, even if according to the president of Fnaim Isère, it remains very difficult to establish an average, given of the situation : “ People do their research and sometimes have prices that are much higher than the market. And as the demand turns out to be much higher than the supply, however, these goods sell quickly ”.
Moreover, when a house with an exterior is displayed at the price, it can find a taker in the space of 24 hours, admits Jean-Paul Girard. “There is an undeniable confinement effect, most people want outdoors or terraces.”
For their part, the prices of old housing located in the city center remain “Relatively stable “, With however another phenomenon that emerges: namely a drop in prices on large Haussmann-style apartments, which, as Jean-Paul Girard recognizes,” often do not have an exterior and are currently less in demand. However, these apartments were still very popular three or four years ago. », He remembers.
However, the small surfaces of the old market are still finding takers, faced with a rental market that is maintained, fueled in particular by demand from the student market, which is very present in the Grenoble area, as well as by the lack of new new buildings.
With, at the end of the day, a price per square meter in the old one which reaches 2,270 euros / m² in Grenoble (i.e. an increase of + 5.4%) over the year 2020 (against 2,140 euros / m² in Isère), and an average price of houses which even climbs by + 7% on the scale of department, at 23,000 euros, according to figures from Fnaim 38.
The nine shows a drop in “historic” stocks
On the new side, the situation is slightly different: “ Since the start of the year, there has been a global decrease in the number of reservations in the new property sector of -25% in Auvergne Rhône-Alpes, quite contrasted since it ranges from -14% to -45% depending on the territories. », Notes Olivier Gallais, president of the FPI Alpes.
Because paradoxically, the three to four months of shutdown following the first confinement will not have penalized sales as strongly as expected.
“The real subject for developers today is the decrease in the number of building permits granted, because up to 8 months of delay have been made on new projects, which results in a stock of goods put in sale at the lowest for 5 to 10 years ”, displays Olivier Gallais.
What cause a strong tension on the real estate market in Isère, and in particular in Grenoblois. ” In 2020, we fell to 863 reservations in Grenoble: this figure has never been so low since since 2015 we have exceeded 1,000 annual reservations », Explains the president of FPI Alpes.
Nevertheless, the Grenoble metropolis displays a particular situation because if the lack of housing is felt in the city center, its southern districts, where a certain number of operations have emerged in recent years, have great difficulty in finding their customers.
The fault, according to several promoters, with the image of these districts, even with the phenomena of insecurity which reign there. ” We saw the videos shot on the networks, the exit of the Minister of the Interior … These are neighborhoods where people no longer want to live or buy, because the situation in the space of 20 years has not improved. A number of projects were even taken off the market because they did not find their audience or price balance. », Adds Olivier Gallais.
A very slight price increase, but …
“The north-western part remains the most popular, but it is not where we have the most offers”, regrets the president of the FPI Alpes. Like other large metropolises such as Lyon, a phenomenon of urban sprawl continues in the inner suburbs of Grenoble, even if here again, the lack of available land does not offer any real alternative.
“The projects go as far as Crolles on the one hand, Saint-Egrève on the other hand, and then go down to Pont-de-Claix. But municipalities close to public transport have already been under heavy demand over the past ten years and want to better control their town planning, ”he says.
A cocktail that could thus drive prices up over the year 2021, while at the same time, the time to market for certain goods continues to lengthen. “ We are on a period of 20 months for the marketing of new properties in the Grenoble metropolis, while we know that it is usually between 10 and 15 months usually “. This flow time decreases very slightly on the perimeter of the city center to 17.6 months, “ but this figure remains high “, Judge Olivier Gallais.
This situation will therefore have led to a small increase in prices, of the order of + 3% in 2020. ” Overall, we observe that over a period of 10 years, prices have increased by + 8% in new buildings: this barely compensates for the increase in inflation, with an average price per square meter of 3,645 euros in the metropolitan area. », He notes. On the perimeter of Grenoble “center”, the prices of new buildings climbed by + 4.7% in the 4th quarter of 2020, to 3,727 euros per m2 according to figures from the FPI Alpes.
Not enough to attract the public of investors very widely, which would cap at one third of buyers in the new segment.
“We are still far from the 50% of public investors registered in large French metropolises such as Bordeaux, Toulouse or Montpellier, which nevertheless seems logical because prices do not move significantly and do not encourage investment”, comments Olivier Gallais .
Shortages to be expected on some new housing
And in 2021, the phenomenon of tension should continue on the Grenoble market, especially in the most popular districts.
« We are eight months behind the marketing of new projects in the northern part of the city, and we will not find normal production volumes over the next few months, given the production time required. Prices will necessarily increase in 2022, or even in 2023 », Considers the president of the FPI Alpes.
Especially since another factor could come to shake up the real estate market: “ The expected changes in the Pinel law should take place from 2023, or even 2024. There is therefore little time left to take advantage of the current tax exemption system of up to 21%. », Illustrates Olivier Gallais, who anticipates increased tension on the T2-T3 market over the coming months.
As for the old market, Jean-Paul Girard believes that if the renovation market could continue to attract investors, the new energy regulations expected to come into force by 2023 will become more restrictive for owners, holders of category F or G goods.
“These dwellings, which may still be quite numerous in the conurbation, will require renovations. It remains to be seen whether this could lead to a more massive marketing of certain dwellings in the coming months, on the part of owners who would not be able to carry out this work, ”he explains.
Finally, will the crisis have helped to redistribute the cards of Grenoble real estate? As for new homes, Olivier Gallais remains measured for his part concerning the consequences of the current period on the will of buyers of new homes, who most often place themselves on a medium-term investment horizon, between 10 to 20 months. . “ But it remains possible that a form of rebalancing is emerging in favor of certain territories », He notes.
Because faced with a phenomenon of metropolization underway for two decades, it is difficult, however, for promoters to know if the pandemic will really be able to change this trajectory already started. “ We know in any case that the 50 medium-sized cities in France have a card to play “. But this would not necessarily be such good news for Grenoble, which appears rather, by virtue of its size but also its characteristics, in the list of major metropolises.
