Norwegian debate, Norwegian politics | Erna Solberg leaves a smack full of cash to a red-green majority

Erna Solberg’s government can be criticized for being very strange. But it is a slap in the face to portray Norway as a bankruptcy estate on the poor fund, as LO adviser Kjetil Staalesen tries in Dagsavisen.

– The box office is empty after eight years with Solberg. The Støre government is thus referred to increase taxes or to cut elsewhere. It is a recipe for becoming unpopular, writes Dagsavisen’s regular writer under the title The Burned Earth Tactics.

The LO adviser sees similarities between the Norwegian political situation and when Napoleon took over a burned-out Russia.

The parallel is imaginative, it should be LO’s special adviser.

Apart from the fact that the claim is a bit petty, considering that we are in the final phase of a pandemic and an international crisis for which the Norwegian government is hardly particularly responsible, the claim is fortunately a slap in the face.

When Erna Solberg took over as Prime Minister, the Petroleum Fund was worth around NOK 5,000 billion. According to the then action rule that she took over from the red-green government (4%), we could spend NOK 200 billion a year from the Petroleum Fund in the state budget.

Since then, two things have happened:

• The Petroleum Fund has increased to NOK 11,200 billion, ie more than a doubling from 2013.
• The action rule has been reduced from four percent to three percent.

What does that mean? Yes, that we can spend NOK 375 billion annually without losing the fund. And Erna Solberg has not come close to doing so during her normal reign.

In other words: The box office is full after eight years with Erna Solberg. If a possible Jonas Gahr Støre government is to become unpopular, it must do so with its own hands.

You can see for yourself: The oil fund’s market value

It is nevertheless positive that LO’s special adviser is concerned about the country’s government financial resources. He has every reason to be, considering which red-green minefield may arise after the election.

In all parties, minus the Center Party, there are strong wings that will wind up the oil business. The only thing they are arguing about is the date to close the money tap.

The willingness to spend money is fairly evenly distributed throughout the red-green alliance. And with the Progress Party as a possible supporter, there is reason to fear further overbid policies from the petroleum populists in the “four gangs”.

It has not exactly been moderation and concern for the Treasury that has characterized the opposition’s criticism of the government’s various support schemes during the corona pandemic.

The horror scenario is a situation where there is both a majority to cut revenues (close the oil taps) and increase public spending. A red-green alliance with MDG, Rødt and SV is more likely than the current governing coalition.

LO’s special adviser believes that a potential prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre has no choice but to raise taxes or cut elsewhere in the budget. It sounds crisis-maximizing. When the pandemic is over, 3 percent of the oil fund will be enough to spend close to NOK 400 billion a year – and that should be more than enough to be both popular and irresponsible.

But let’s say the special adviser has a point. Then he should get a free proposal. Together with the rest of LO’s members, LO’s well-paid management demands to have a specially designed tax credit earmarked for themselves. It is called doubling the trade union deduction, and is a tax relief in the billion class over the next four years with a red-green government.

(A clever little side effect of doubling the union tax cut is that it makes it easier to have a high contingent for LO – and thus increased resources to pay the LO management with solid million salaries).

My suggestion is simple: Remove the proposal for increased tax relief for union members. Then you have a few billion for other good causes!

Alternatively: Stop pretending the box is empty. Anyone who wants to see can easily observe that the boxes have never been fuller – and that after a year of pandemic!