Thursday, March 11, marks a year since the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the coronavirus and the disease it causes, Covid-19, a pandemic. But what conditions must be met for the WHO to announce that the pandemic is over?
According to a BBC report, the first criterion is that there are no more infections. There are currently only 14 countries or territories free of Covid-19, 12 of which are islands in one of the two largest oceans.
The problem is that stopping infections is very difficult, and the number is constantly increasing. The effect of the eight vaccines that are already being administered is being felt very slowly and it will take many months to reach the 75% immunized that the United States is seeking, Darik said.
Another factor would be the achievement of the so-called collective or herd immunity, ie. when a large part of the population becomes immune to the virus and its transmission is stopped or delayed to a maximum.
Herd immunity against Covid-19 will be achieved with the immunity of 60% of the world’s population, which, in the short term, is not achievable, according to the WHO. “We are still learning about immunity to Covid-19. Most people infected with Covid-19 develop an immune response in the first few weeks, but we do not know how strong or long-lasting this immunity is. “There have also been reports of people being infected with Covid-19 for the second time,” the WHO said.
Therefore, the most plausible would be to consider the pandemic over when the virus is under control or, as the BBC reports, when “the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths will no longer be considered an urgent medical problem.” .
“What we hope is to achieve levels of infection that can be controlled, and the virus to become less dangerous and contagious, to achieve a balance in which the endemicity of this pathogen is not so bad for most This would allow us to live with this virus and at the same time return to some kind of normalcy, “said Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health at Columbia University in New York.
And how long will it take? A study by scientists from Emory University and Pennsylvania State University calculated the time frame using a mathematical model. According to the study, this could take between a year and a decade, although WHO Director Tedros Adhanom Gebreyesus has set a date for mid-2022.
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