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- BBC World News
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Image source, Getty Images
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Chile is the Latin American country with the highest percentage of the vaccinated population.
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The end of summer leaves Chile at a bad time in the fight against the coronavirus.
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The South American nation is once again experiencing a rebound in cases similar to that of June and July, the worst moments of the covid-19 in the country that led to a strict quarantine.
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“The current situation in Chile is very serious. We are reaching a record of cases per day that is similar to that of the most difficult months of the pandemic in 2020,” the doctor tells BBC Mundo. Juan Carlos Said, Master of Public Health from Imperial College London.
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“In terms of hospitalized patients, we have also reached a figure that is similar to that of the most complicated months, with critical bed occupancy levels over 95%, which speaks of a saturation of the system and a situation that is extremely complex. in terms of health, “he adds.
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The increase in cases in the country occurs at a time when infections are also rebounding globally as a result of the appearance of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the relaxation of measures, as recently warned by the WHO.
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The current situation in Chile is seen by many as a red flag for the rest of Latin America, not only because the country has been one of the countries that has carried out the most tests since the pandemic began, but also because it is at the forefront of the coronavirus vaccination campaign in the region.
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According to the vaccine tracking carried out by the University of Oxford (England), Chile ranked fifth in the world in doses administered per 100 inhabitants, only surpassed by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States.
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But, how can it be explained then that, despite how advanced its vaccination campaign is, the number of cases and hospitalizations is once again on a par with the most critical moments of the pandemic in 2020?
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The causes behind the increase
Chile marked one year this month since it reported the first case of covid-19 with one of the worst number of infections since 2020.
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According to data from the Ministry of Health, since the end of February the country began again to be around 5,000 new cases per day.
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Since the start of the pandemic, Chile has registered some 860,000 cases and more than 22,000 deaths, according to official figures.
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“What we are seeing now in Chile is a situation similar to that experienced in the United Kingdom after the summer holidays, in which there was a very strong second wave,” the doctor explained to BBC Mundo. Claudia Cortes, academic at the University of Chile and vice president of the Chilean Society of Infectology.
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The experts consulted by BBC Mundo agree that the causes behind the new increase are varied and are due to reasons that range from the policies implemented to contain the virus since the beginning of the pandemic to fatigue due to the measures a year later.
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“Chile never achieved effective control of the pandemic. Unlike some European or Oceania or Asian countries that achieved a significant decline after the first wave, what happened in Chile was that we stabilized in what we call a high endemic, that is to say, a persistent number of cases that never went down “, explains Said.
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Image source, AFP
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Chile is among the countries that have carried out the most coronavirus tests in the region since the start of the pandemic.
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According to the expert, although the country developed a “very significant” capacity to perform covid tests, it was not very effective in locating the contacts of infected people, which caused the virus to continue to circulate.
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“There is also fatigue regarding the pandemic and, if at the beginning the population was very adherent to the measures and restrictions, the economic and social fragility of the country and the high rate of informal employment, especially in the poorest communes, have meant that people have to go out to work despite restrictions on mobility, “he adds.
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Cortés, for his part, explains that another element behind the current increase was the lifting of certain mobility restrictions during the summer months.
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“The government authorized special permits to go on vacation and that meant that between 4 and 5 million people mobilized to different areas that are currently experiencing very extreme crises, with hospitals with full beds, with very high percentages of positivity , in some cases greater than the first wave, “he says.
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In this sense, the Ministry of Health recognizes that summer vacations played a fundamental role in the current situation.
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“The increase in cases has to do mainly with the relaxation of self-care standards during the summer, which has also happened in other countries around the world,” he said in a statement sent to BBC Mundo.
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“For this reason, while we develop the vaccination process of the priority groups that today reaches 28.39% of the total target population (15 million people), we insist that the public maintain the use of a mask, the frequent washing of hands with soap and water, maintain physical distance, avoid crowds, among others, “he adds.
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The arrival of vaccines
Unlike several Latin American countries, Chile negotiated with several pharmaceutical companies the purchase of vaccines almost from the first months of the pandemic, which facilitated priority access to several brands since they were authorized.
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This, together with an effective vaccination system at the primary level developed over the years, allowed it to be at the forefront not only at the regional level, but also among the countries in the world with the highest percentage of its population vaccinated to date.
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Image source, AFP
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Chile has consolidated its vaccination system over the years, which facilitated the new campaign against covid-19
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According to data from the Ministry of Health, as of Monday more than 4 million people had been vaccinated (in a nation of 19 million), several times more than other countries in the region with a larger population, such as Mexico, Brazil or Argentina.
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“To date, a total of 4,364,136 people have been vaccinated in the country, of which 2,688,850 are people over 60 years of age and over who have participated in the campaign,” indicates the Ministry.
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However, Cortés considers that the very success of the vaccination campaign may be one of the causes behind the current outbreak, given that many people were confident about the start of immunizations.
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“Unfortunately with the beginning of the vaccination there was a bad handling of the information that was delivered to the population and with the communication of risk, implying that with the vaccine this had already been solved and not delivering the message that the vaccine is one more element in the prevention of infection, “he says.
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“So when the vaccination started, many people thought that since the vaccines had already arrived, the problem was over and self-care measures were significantly relaxed,” he adds.
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The experts do not rule out either that the new variants that circulate in various countries of the world may be behind the new increase, as has happened in other countries.
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Monday, Chilean authorities recognized that the Brazilian variant had been in the country for weeks and had previously also identified the British variant.
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“The issue is that in Chile determinations of the variants are being made in a more or less isolated manner. We know that we have the United Kingdom variant and it was reported that we had the Brazilian variant. There are no reports at the moment of the South African variant, but in the scientific community we do not know if there are no reports because there are no cases or because they are not looking in that sense, “he says.
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“That is why as a scientific community we have requested that a more serious study be carried out to determine the variants,” he says.
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The effectiveness of vaccines
The fact that Chile is in the lead at the regional level in vaccination at a time when cases are increasing again, has not only led the authorities to decree new quarantines, it has also led many to question how it is possible that this happens despite the promised benefit of vaccines.
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However, the experts consulted by BBC Mundo agree that vaccines are effective, but not “magic” to reduce infections from one day to the next.
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“There is no contradiction between the increase in cases and vaccines. We would really be asking for something that cannot be expected from vaccines. Vaccines don’t work right away, “explains Said.
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“Many vaccines, such as Sinovac, which is the majority here, require the application of two doses at three-week intervals and the highest immunity begins to be achieved from the second week of the second dose,” he explains.
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“So while Chile has vaccinated 20% of the population with the first dose, less than 5% have received two doses of the vaccine and are effectively immunized. So we are seeing that it is being vaccinated quickly but it means that that percent of the population is effectively immunized, “he says.
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Image source, Getty Images
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Most of the doses being inoculated in Chile belong to the Chinese Sinovac.
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According to the infectologist, in order for the effects of the doses to be visible, a much larger number of the population must be vaccinated with them.
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“In population terms, to lower the number of hospitalizations and deaths, the vaccine is effective when 80% of the population is vaccinated. And we’re still a long way from it“, dice.
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Said estimates that the country will begin to see the first results in the decrease in the number of hospitalizations and deaths by the end of March, if the current vaccination rate is maintained.
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However, he does not expect infections to decrease in the same proportion.
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“This is due to the fact that in Chile the Sinovac vaccine is being used, which is less effective in terms of preventing contagion compared to others, such as Pfizer’s,” he explains.
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“The greatest efficacy is that it can prevent hospitalization and death almost the same as the others. So the first impact that we are going to see is a reduction in deaths and hospitalizations probably at the end of March and the reduction of infections will probably take longer and will depend on reaching a herd immunity threshold “, he estimates.
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Until that point is reached, the Ministry of Health recommends not “lowering your guard.”
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“We insist on always maintaining the self-care measures that are currently the most effective while achieving herd immunity, which we hope to achieve by the end of the first semester,” indicates the institution.
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