Berlin – Germany is loosening up. Private meetings are again allowed in a larger group; In Berlin, Brandenburg and other federal states you can make an appointment in the store – to name just two examples. But Kai Nagel, professor at the Technical University of Berlin, remains cautious. He has lived with his wife in Bonn for a year and has only traveled to Berlin twice since then. The danger is not over yet, warns the mobility researcher, who, along with virologist Christian Drosten, Lothar Wieler from the Robert Koch Institute and other experts, is one of the federal government’s corona advisors. In an interview, the 55-year-old explains which easing will exacerbate the crisis. In the cultural area, however, more freedom would be possible again.
Professor Nagel, corona measures have only just been relaxed, but the discussion is still going on. Some refer to the number of infections, others call for further steps to be taken quickly. What do you mean?
I am surprised that further loosening is required quickly. Because the third wave is already here and in full swing. And it will bring us higher numbers of infections and more deaths than the second wave if we do not take decisive countermeasures and expand the toolbox. It gets its dynamism from the contagious mutants of the coronavirus, which are now increasingly dominating the scene. However, the number of infections would also increase if we had retained the previous restrictions. The lockdown would not have been enough to prevent the third wave.
Mask requirement also in open-plan offices
Does that mean that the second lockdown has so far failed?
No, you can’t say that. The second lockdown succeeded in easing the exponential growth in the spread of the virus that built up at the end of last year. It also prevented the health system from being overwhelmed. But as I said, he couldn’t spare us that we are now confronted with a third wave.
What do you mean, expand the toolbox to weaken the third wave?
First, we need to get more people to be vaccinated in shorter periods of time. Second, we need massively more rapid tests. They are so important because so far many people do not know that they are a danger to others. Anyone who has contracted Corona initially shows no symptoms for days. In around 20 percent of cases, the disease even remains completely symptom-free. Such silent cases can be discovered with rapid tests, they prevent infections. It would be best if everyone had such a test twice a week. According to our calculations, the R value, which indicates the average number of people infected by a corona infected person, would decrease by around 1. If 80 percent of the population is tested once a week, the reduction is still 0.6. That would also be remarkable.
Photo: Marcel Rieser
Kai Nagel, professor for traffic system planning and traffic telematics at the TU Berlin, researches the mobility of people – also in the pandemic.
Which of the new easing do you see most critically?
The relaxation in the private sphere will lead to many new infections. Up to five adults from two households are now allowed to meet again: of all the changes that have now come into force, this will have the greatest negative impact. It would have been better to differentiate: Meetings indoors remain strictly limited as before, meetings outdoors are now possible again to a greater extent. I see the easing in the retail sector as unproblematic. So far, retail has made little contribution to the infection process in our simulations.
What was missed?
From my point of view, the obligation to cover your mouth and nose should have been expanded further. The obligation to wear a mask should also apply in open-plan offices – generally in all indoor areas. And well-fitting FFP3 masks would be even better than FFP2 masks.
String quartet yes, wind quartet no
They advise federal and state politicians on corona issues. What criteria do these people actually use to make their decisions?
Those responsible are making honest efforts to ensure that this country comes through the crisis well. However, they have to process a lot of information, some of which are contradicting or appearing to be contradicting and sometimes even classified as interest-driven misinformation. But sometimes it is also right to open valves. For two weeks now we have seen greater mobility in Germany again. This means that people are traveling more often again – the rules have not changed during this time. Politicians cannot ignore citizens. I compare that to pedestrian lights when there is little traffic. Many people ignore them, but that cannot be prevented by putting up more traffic lights.
Are you going to travel over Easter?
No. My wife and I have thought about it, but traveling does not fit into this time. Of course, you could reduce the risk by booking a vacation home or holiday home. Nevertheless, it is possible that you will be infected at the holiday destination and bring the virus into the country.
The Easter holiday is still uncertain anyway. When will travel be possible again?
It would be good if we refrained from traveling for a while, because travel brings infections from areas of high incidence to areas of low incidence. I also do not expect indoor catering, including pubs and clubs, to be allowed to reopen in the coming months, even if a quick test would apply there. It’s because of the circumstances. A mask cannot be worn while eating, and people often speak out loud in restaurants. Both contribute to the fact that the aerosols with the virus can spread. We must continue to avoid many people meeting indoors. The higher the density of people, the more problematic it becomes.
Silence in local traffic – don’t talk, don’t make phone calls
Does that mean the lockdown should continue to apply to culture?
Cinemas could be reopened if certain rules were observed, that would be unproblematic. Cinema halls almost always have a ventilation system, and cinema-goers usually do not speak during the screening. The situation is similar with events, provided they take place in large rooms and the density of people remains low. In the case of theaters and concert halls, one would have to differentiate: string quartet yes, wind quartet no. And no opera, because there is singing.
The restaurants are empty, the S-Bahn trains on the Ring are full. Does that go together?
The data says public transport is currently 40 percent less used than it was before the pandemic. There are also fundamental differences. Public transport as part of the general interest is needed to get people to work. In addition, the risk of infection due to the mask requirement is lower than in other indoor spaces where masks are not worn, for example in restaurants. Our model calculations show that. If the vehicles are not too full, if they are ventilated and if there is as little talk as possible, the risk of infection in local traffic is lower than in your own living room when meeting friends.
However, the criteria you cite are not always met. There are phone calls in the railways, many railways seem poorly ventilated.
There is always a risk – even when I’m on the road, by the way. I cannot and will not argue that away. I am just saying under which conditions the risk in public transport is lower than elsewhere. And I’ll stick with it: From a scientific point of view, it would make sense to remain silent in local transport. This also applies to telephoning.
Should the transport companies make sure that not too many people get on at stops and train stations?
If they could manage to regulate the influx of passengers, that would be a good thing. But if there were waiting people clustered together, that would again be problematic. I think it makes more sense to make working hours more flexible so that rush hour traffic is even more smooth.
BVG bus drivers’ fear of infection is “plausible”
The Senate is committed to ensuring that passengers in BVG buses can get back on the front and buy tickets there. Bus drivers, on the other hand, fear that they will be infected.
I can understand the fear of the BVG bus drivers, their fear seems plausible to me. We must not forget: the third wave of contagion is rolling and we should do without everything that can drive it. The problem of the income that the BVG is currently countering could be solved if employees at stops outside would sell tickets.
There are still people who do not adhere to the mask requirement in local transport. Should the contractual penalties and fines be increased?
Every passenger should know that wearing a mask is above all protecting themselves. When you breathe in, the textile protection fits your mouth, which reduces the risk of germs penetrating. For this reason alone, every user of public transport should observe the obligation to wear a mask. According to my information, however, it is largely followed. If the proportion of mask refusers should increase, one could think about tightening the penalties. Until then there is no reason for it.
Are there any scientific studies that show that passengers on public transport are infected?
I researched whether there are any studies on this, but haven’t found any so far. This could be seen as confirmation of the thesis that there is actually no problem here. There is an investigation for Deutsche Bahn that deals with train attendants. No higher infection rate was found in them. Last year, the Ministry of Transport commissioned a study that looked at the ways in which coronaviruses spread in local transport. I look forward to the results. However, it cannot be reliably said that no one has been infected in local transport so far. It is not possible to track contacts in this area. If the Corona app had been structured differently, it would have been able to collect the corresponding data.
Despite all the findings: Many people avoid buses and trains because they are afraid of being infected with Corona. Has the image of local transport been damaged?
I think the companies did the right thing. You have maintained the capacity and supply for the passengers. The introduction of the mask requirement prevented many infections.
How long will this crisis last?
Nobody knows at the moment. We try to get the danger under control with vaccinations. If we can do that, the population can be protected. However, there are mutants in Brazil for which the current vaccines do not appear to be effective. We have to be prepared to adjust the vaccination strategy again and again. Another question is when we will face the next new virus: in two or 20 years. Even if Corona will be over at some point – the general danger will remain.
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