Decline less than expected.
According to a new forecast, the population in Germany will only decrease slightly to 81.9 million people by 2040. Compared to 2020, around 1.3 million fewer people would live in Germany – a significantly smaller decline than previously expected, as the Federal Institute for Building, Urban and Spatial Research (BBSR) in Bonn announced.
However, large regional differences are to be expected in terms of population development. While economically strong cities and their surrounding areas as well as some rural regions will continue to grow, the population in structurally weak areas away from the metropolises is likely to decrease further.
Strong growth in children and adolescents in Freiburg
The researchers forecast the strongest population growth of 14 percent by 2040 for the Munich suburbs of Dachau, Erding and Ebersberg as well as the urban districts of Landshut and Leipzig. Especially in the old federal states there are many urban districts in which the number of children and young people will increase by more than a fifth by 2040 – for example in Regensburg, Munich and Freiburg im Breisgau. The scientists attribute this to the fact that the population there is already very young and an above-average number of children are born.
On the other hand, numerous structurally weak districts away from the metropolises could lose their population. According to the forecast, the average age in these regions will increase at an above-average rate. In the year 2040, the people in the districts of Elbe-Elster, Spree-Neisse, Greiz and Altenburger Land will be around 52 years old on average.
At the other end of the scale are university cities such as Mainz, Münster, Freiburg, Heidelberg and Jena – the average population there will be around 42 years old in 2040 as well. Across Germany, the average age will increase from 44.3 years in 2017 to 45.9 years in 2040, according to the calculations of the BBSR.
–
