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Production continues to recover, but further growth is uncertain

The year in the industrial sector in Latvia has started relatively successfully, and producers are able to adapt to the current situation, but new outbreaks of the epidemic and measures to limit the spread of the virus may also hinder the growth of the manufacturing industry, economists admit.

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It has already been reported that in January 2021, compared to January 2020, according to calendar adjusted data at constant prices, industrial production increased by 2.8%, according to the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB).

“In January, the manufacturing industry continued the annual growth of production achieved in previous months, which is modest in January (+ 2.2%), but in the circumstances of an emergency it is also a recognizable success,”Luminor“economist Pēteris Strautiņš.

“The decrease in production compared to December (-1.7%) could be categorized as” it happens “, but it is possible that it is related to the disruption of the production process caused by the pandemic, which most often does not stop work altogether, but reduces efficiency. food production, as its output fell by 5.4% month-on-month, is not likely to fluctuate in this stable sector, leading to an 8% year-on-year decline in food production. Wood processing also fell sharply on a monthly basis (-7 , 2%), but the previous months were excellent, so compared to last January, an increase of 6.3% was registered, “says the expert.

“This year for Latvian producers has started a little slower than the previous one. After steady growth for four months in January, manufacturing saw a slight month-on-month decline in production, but continued to grow during the year,” said Agnese Buceniece, Swedbank’s senior economist. CSB data show that production volumes were 2.2% (calendar adjusted data at constant prices) higher than a year earlier. Overall, the sector’s performance is positive and is expected to continue to grow in the coming months.

“In January, on an annual basis, growth was observed in the largest manufacturing sub-sector – wood processing – by 0.6%. Printing (+ 6.6%) and clothing (+ 10.1%) also made a positive contribution to the sector’s growth. Production volumes increased also in the chemical industry and furniture production, “describes Ministry of Economy Analyst of the Analytical Service Edmunds Gergelevičs.

Overall, the manufacturing industry shows an increase in volumes for the fourth consecutive month, notes Ministry of Finance experts. Since the middle of last year, the success of the manufacturing industry has been mainly determined by the growth of the wood industry, which was promoted by the increase in exports to Great Britain, Estonia and the USA. Yes Great Britain and Estonia is among the largest markets for Latvian wood products, then exports to the United States last year accounted for only 2.1% of the total export value of wood and wood products. However, Latvian timber producers point out that the US market is currently very promising, which is determined by the high timber prices in this country.

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