"How much is the palm price?"

Dr. Atpisanwanich, Director of the Center for International Trade Studies University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Write a story analysis “How much is the palm price?”

If going to analyzeFresh palm fruit pricesDuring 10 years agoFound to haveIt fluctuates both over 3 baht per kilogram (kg) and less than 3 baht per kilogram.When the price of palm fruit is high, the price of crude palm oil will rise as well. Which will affect consumers who have to buy more expensive bottles of oil And entrepreneurs have higher production costs But farmers will have higher incomes

The pastThai palm policyThere are 2 issues: setting the price of fresh palm (bringing CPO for export in 2017, using CPO to generate electricity in 2018, producing B10 in 2019 and controlling imports in 2011). And does not affect the price of palm fruit

This is because The entire Thai palm industry is linked to the Malaysian palm industry. Although the use of Thai oil palm policy needs to “Manage palm oil stock” Because if the suitable crude palm oil stock is between 150,000 – 200,000 tons, the price of palm fruit will go up more than 3 baht per kg. “Swing back and forth” Or if the stock increases or decreases by 1 percent, it will cause the FFB price to drop or increase by 0.5 percent (running in opposite directions). And since the second quarter of 2020, Thai palm fruit prices have increased from 3 baht per kg to 7 baht per kg (Feb. 2021)

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The reason that at the beginning of the year the price has risen because “The output at the beginning of the year will come out less than other months, the stock is down, Malaysia’s output is little. Due to lack of labor during the COVID period, the output of the past two years has decreased due to falling agricultural prices, thus not maintaining palm plantations, drought problems, as well as being used to produce biodiesel B10 since the beginning of 2020 “

However, improving palm prices is good for farmers. But at the same time, it increases the production cost for entrepreneurs who process crude palm oil (CPO) to Thailand. “Bind to only biodiesel” Must encourage CPO to be used for other palm oil products When compared between 2015 and 2019, the demand for CPO in the biodecial industry has increased from 36% to 39%, and I think that 2020 should increase by over 40%, resulting in the adoption of CPO in other industries. The reason is because there is no incentive to use in other industries, the current and future high demand palm products industry is Personal care products, food and cosmetics

In the research of oil palm on “Analysis of the palm industry supply chain in Thailand and Malaysia to develop oleochemical industries in line with farmers’ production costs” That I received funding from “Agricultural Research Development Agency (Public Organization) or Suak “and is“One piece” research thatHave been selectedFrom the palm oil research groupTo organize a forum for publicizingUnder the heading “Agriculture Policy Brief”

Thailand is the smallest palm oil producer of one of the world’s top 3 palm oil producing countries, for example, in 2018, Thailand has a yield area of 5.8 million rai, Malaysia has 32 million rai and Indonesia is 89 million rai, and Thailand can produce crude palm oil (CPO). ) 2.7 million tonnes, Malaysia 19 million tonnes, Indonesia 40 million tonnes. In this research I do to answer the question. “What is the price of fresh palm fruit that the Thai oil palm products industry can come up with?”

I have analyzed that if the biodiesel business Fatty alcohol and bio-lubricants Will take place in Thailand Which is analyzed together between palm oil percentage (OER) and business profits. Research has shown that the biodiesel business that can buy palm fruit is between 2.27 and 3.44 baht per kg. 2.0 to 6.30 baht per kg and the fatty alcohol business can buy palm fruit, the price is between 2.81 and 4.97 baht per kg, it can be seen that the price of fresh palm fruit is 2 baht per kg, farmers may not want it. Can increase the production potential to a higher it can survive Because if the output per rai is higher than 3 tons per rai, the production cost will be lower than 3 baht per kg.

forSuggestions in this researchIs 1. Lost the number 3 trap This means that more than 3 tons per rai of output per rai have to be increased and the cost is reduced to less than 3 baht per kg. 2. Push CPO to other industries. In addition to the biodiesel industry 3. Imported Fast Lane For the palm oil industry only Because during the shortage of production in Thailand CPO as raw material will not be sufficient for the industry. 4.RSPO standard Defined as an indicator that Thai palm plantations must meet RSPO standards and 5. OER measuring instrument That is acceptable to all parties