Over the years, the football industry has continued to develop, especially from an economic point of view. For example, the Bundesliga had more than tripled sales in just under ten years. Higher audience numbers, sponsorship and media money also had a direct effect on the price of players.
Just over a year ago, the industry was at an all-time high, before everything was shut down as a result of the ongoing pandemic. It was foreseeable in advance that the decision of the various football associations – and of course politicians too – would have a direct impact on clubs and players. We will now take a closer look at the latter and take a look at the change in market value.
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Some leagues even introduced salary caps after the Corona crisisAccordingly, it was foreseeable that the market values of the players would also adjust as a result. The consequences of the pandemic also made themselves felt in Europe’s top leagues. The Bundesliga was not spared the changes in the market value of the players.
How has the market value of players in top European leagues changed?
Just a few years ago, Neymar moved to the sheikh club PSG for a record transfer fee of 222 million euros. This made the Brazilian the most expensive transfer of all time in the 2017/18 season, closely followed by his team-mate Kylian Mbappé, who moved from AS Monaco to the French capital just one season later for 145 million euros.
The three most expensive transfers of all time
If you consider the financial losses the clubs had to accept in the course of the pandemic, transfer fees seem to be unrealistic in the next few years. After all, the market value of the players was reduced as a result of the Corona crisis – at least according to the study by “KPMG” and the current market values from “Transfermarkt.de”.
Globally, the market value of players fell by almost 20 percent over the course of the 2019/20 season. According to the international study by “CIES”, the international center for sports studies in Switzerland, a market loss of more than a third was forecast during the “Corona” season, so the football industry got off lightly.
Change in market value just a snapshot?
According to Transfermarkt.de, international stars such as Neymar, Mbappé, Ronaldo and Messi suffered a major loss in market value. Above all, the Argentine star had a big minus, which is partly due to the expiring contract with FC Barcelona. In December 2019, Messi – according to Transfermarkt.de – was still worth 140 million euros, meanwhile the market value is “only” 80 million euros.
For some international stars, especially the up-and-coming youngsters, there was also a positive change in market value. BVB striker Erling Haaland, for example, has increased its market value from 45 million euros to 110 million euros since December 2019. The increase in market value of the Norwegian was due, among other things, to the strong performance last year.
Already knew?
- A move from Erling Haaland in the summer of 2021 cannot be ruled out. Teams like Real Madrid, Manchester United and Chelsea London are already showing great interest in signing the youngster.
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The table below gives a small overview of how the market value of the ten most expensive players worldwide changed from December 2019 (before the Corona crisis) to February 2021. This includes the values taken from Transfermarkt.de, which roughly correspond to the values from KPMG.
Changes in the market value of the ten most expensive players worldwide
| player | society | Market value before Corona (Dec / 19) | Current market value | MW change in percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé |
PSG | 200.00 million € | 180.00 million € | -10,0 % |
| Neymar |
PSG | 160.00 million € | 128.00 million € | -20,0 % |
| Sadio Mané |
Liverpool | 150.00 million € | 120.00 million € | -20,0 % |
| Mohamed Salah |
Liverpool | 150.00 million € | 120.00 million € | -20,0 % |
| Harry Kane |
Tottenham | 150.00 million € | 120.00 million € | -20,0 % |
| Kevin de Bruyne |
Man. City | 150.00 million € | 120.00 million € | -20,0 % |
| Erling Haaland |
BVB | 45.00 million € | 110.00 million € | +144,0 % |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold |
Liverpool | 110.00 million € | 110.00 million € | +0,0 % |
| Raheem Sterling |
Man. City | 160.00 million € | 110.00 million € | -31,0 % |
| Joao Felix |
Atl. Madrid | 100.00 million € | 100.00 million € | +0,0 % |
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Changes in market value taken from Transfermarkt.de (as of February 14, 2020)
What factors play a role in determining market value?
As mentioned before, it is quite understandable with the Argentine attacking star Lionel Messi that the change in market value was higher than with players like Mbappé or ex-teammate Neymar. Messi’s contract expires at the end of the season, and at 33, the Argentine is no longer the youngest footballer on the pitch.
Below are the various factors that, among other things, play a role in determining market value. The criteria for “CIES”, “KPMG” and “Transfermarkt.de” differ only marginally.
Factors in Determining Market Value
- Age of the player, contract duration, performance, career, club (league)
Which teams had the greatest loss of market value due to Corona?
In the top European leagues, almost all teams got a global market value cut – especially at “Transfermarkt.de”. Managing director Matthias Seidel justified the decision, among other things, with the serious financial consequences for the clubs. According to Seidel, larger transfer sums are unlikely in the future.
“The crisis is already having far-reaching financial consequences for the clubs. This will also be evident in the future transfer fees, which have a major influence on our market values. “
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In the Bundesliga, the teams were devalued by almost 18 percent on average during the Corona crisis. The total market value of the record champions from Munich has meanwhile been set by “Transfermarkt.de” at 756 million euros – a total loss of 179.7 million euros. According to Seidel, the devaluation from FCB was due, among other things, to the age structure.
In the course of the year, the market value of the Bundesliga clubs stabilized again. As the following table shows, there are therefore also positive changes with regard to the reporting date in December 2019. In addition, as expected, the promoted players from the 2nd Bundesliga invested a lot in the squad, which is why the positive change in MW should not be overestimated.
Overall market changes for Bundesliga teams since December 2019
| society | MW vor Corona |
Current value | MW change in percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern Munich |
883.65 million € | 829.00 million € | -6,2 % |
| Dortmund |
640.50 million € | 592.95 Mio. € | -7,4 % |
| RB Leipzig |
544.40 million € | 558.78 Mio. € | +2,6 % |
| Leverkusen |
415.25 million € | 396.30 Mio. € | -4,6 % |
| Gladbach |
270.50 million € | 346.45 Mio. € | +28,1 % |
| Hoffenheim |
234.80 million € | 228.30 million € | -2,8 % |
| Hertha BSC |
222.70 million € | € 224.70 million | +0,9 % |
| Wolfsburg |
233.45 Mio. € | € 221.05 million | -5,3 % |
| Frankfurt |
216.05 Mio. € | 204.90 Mio. € | -5,2 % |
| Stuttgart |
79.05 Mio. € | 151.00 million € | +91,0 % |
| Freiburg |
135.00 million € | 127.58 Mio. € | -5,5 % |
| Schalke |
208.03 million € | € 117.60 million | -43,5 % |
| Cologne |
97.90 Mio. € | 106.50 million € | +8,8 % |
| Augsburg |
139.25 million € | 101.10 million € | -27,4 % |
| Werder Bremen |
171.85 million € | 98.20 million € | -42,9 % |
| Mainz |
152.45 Mio. € | € 87.95 million | -42,3 % |
| Union Berlin |
36.00 million € | 76.20 million € | +111,7 % |
| Arminia Bielefeld |
€ 20.45 million | € 50.75 million | +148,2 % |
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Changes in market value taken from Transfermarkt.de (as of February 14, 2020)
Are megatransfers unrealistic in the future?
There is still no telling how the football industry will recover from the corona pandemic. However, it is already clear in the run-up to next season that mega-transfers in the area of the 100 million mark are rather utopian. Under the current circumstances, it is unlikely that teams in the European top leagues will spend so much money in their hands.
In any case, the transfer behavior of the clubs in the top five European leagues has changed enormously compared to previous years. In Spain there was almost 70% less transfer expenditure compared to the three-year average, in Germany it was almost 51% less transfer expenditure.
Screenshot from the KPMG Football Benchmark Twitter account (on February 14, 2021, 8:06 pm)
At least that is the interim conclusion after the winter transfer window, where the transfer of Sebastien Haller from West Ham United to Ajax Amsterdam was one of the most expensive winter newcomers in Europe. In the summer before, however, Kai Havertz was the most expensive transfer in the 2020/21 season with a transfer fee of 80 million euros.
The ten most expensive transfers in the 2020/21 season
| player | From | To | Transferfenster | Transfer fee (in € million) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Havertz |
Leverkusen | Chelsea | Summer 2020 | 80,00 |
| Arthur |
Barcelona | Juventus | Summer 2020 | 72,00 |
| Victor Osimhen |
Small | Naples | Summer 2020 | 70,00 |
| Ruben Dias |
Benfica Lisbon | Manchester City | Summer 2020 | 68,00 |
| Miralem Pjanic |
Juventus | Barcelona | Summer 2020 | 60,00 |
| Timo Werner |
RB Leipzig | Chelsea | Summer 2020 | 53,00 |
| Ben Chilwell |
Leicester City | Chelsea | Summer 2020 | 50,20 |
| Mauro Icardi |
Inter Milan | PSG | Summer 2020 | 50,00 |
| Thomas Partey |
Atl. Madrid | Arsenal | Summer 2020 | 50,00 |
| Nathan Aké |
Bournemouth | Manchester City | Summer 2020 | 45,30 |
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