New studies on the coronavirus: Every vaccine has its advantages – and all of them work – politics

Scientific reports often meant bad news in the Corona year: warnings, steep curves, mutated viruses. But recently there are more hopeful messages in the specialist journals. There are findings from the ongoing vaccination campaigns.

One came only on Thursday new study from Israel to it. She drew the same conclusion as others before her: vaccination works – often better than hoped and practically no matter what.

The most recent encouraging findings come from the UK and Israel. It’s not a coincidence. Both countries have high vaccination rates, so enough visual aids. Israel in particular offers extremely good conditions for research: almost nine million inhabitants, especially in the pandemic almost an island isolated from the outside world, a tightly organized health system and above all: hardly any data protection.

For the vaccine manufacturer Biontech / Pfizer, the country has become a major laboratory thanks to a deal with the government. The group guaranteed fast delivery, the government free access to health data to an extent that would have caused an outcry in this country.

But as a result, researchers have now been able to evaluate the vaccination data of around 1.2 million insured persons with the Clalit health insurance company in order to check the vaccine under real conditions. The results, published in the “New England Journal of Medicine”, confirm earlier findings. Even after a first dose of the Biontech / Pfizer vaccine, the probability of falling seriously ill with Covid-19 falls by more than 60 percent within two to three weeks; after the second dose it is 92 percent lower.

The pitfalls of probability

Because probability calculation is not for everyone, the absolute numbers are not as scientifically precise, but clearer: Among almost 600,000 vaccinated people, there were only 55 severe courses compared to 174 in an equally large and similarly composed group of non-vaccinated people. 32 people who were not vaccinated died, but only nine people who were vaccinated.

Since the British mutant B.1.1.7 was already widespread in Israel at that time, the authors conclude that the Biontech / Pfizer vaccine also effectively slows this variant down. Now the preparation – like its technical cousin from Moderna – has long been considered something like the current gold standard in corona vaccination. In contrast, Astrazeneca’s third vaccine currently approved in Europe has a mixed reputation in Germany.

Wrongly, as many experts emphasize: The reputation is the result of less than happy communication and the special pitfalls of the calculation of probability.

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Two figures are still haunted by the debate today: Biontech / Pfizer named the effectiveness of its agent 95 percent, Astrazeneca came to around 70 percent. That this does not mean that about every third Astrazeneca vaccination is for the cat was initially only clear to the small group of specialists.

The value actually indicates how much the probability of developing any Covid 19 symptoms drops at all – regardless of whether it is a mild cold or a fatal course. The fact that in the studies that Astrazeneca submitted for approval not a single person who had been vaccinated twice had to go to hospital was completely lost in the supposedly easy-to-understand comparison of figures.

Each remedy has its own advantages

In the meantime, however, more recent data are also available here, which even certify that the Astrazeneca agent has advantages over the competition. Technically, it already has it, because it does not have to be frozen, but can be inoculated in normal refrigerators by normal doctors. Otherwise mass vaccination of Germans is unlikely to be possible in the foreseeable future.

In addition, there are now initial indications that the Astrazeneca agent works earlier than the Biontech / Pfizer product. They come from a study this time from Scotland, which received the data for almost the entire population. In the paper, which was still published as a preprint, i.e. without critical counter-readers from the professional world, the authors calculate that four to five weeks after an initial Astrazeneca dose, the number of vaccinated people who nevertheless had to go to hospital with severe courses was already 94 percent compared to non-vaccinated persons. The Biontec / Pfizer agent “only” reached 85 percent, which is still extremely good, however.

Moreover, another points study points out that the Astrazeneca mean in the original number race of probabilities can clearly catch up if one waits longer than before with the second dose. The probability of developing symptoms decreased by 80 percent instead of around 70 percent if the second dose was not vaccinated for three months.

If these findings are confirmed, the means developed in British-Swedish cooperation at Oxford University would have a double technical advantage. Because the longer the vaccination interval can last without the protective effect decreasing significantly in the meantime, the faster a larger part of the population can be protected, at least in a first round.

Only when the virus is under control everywhere is the danger averted

This could be of additional interest for poorer countries, where the logistics for mass vaccinations are missing – but which are important for the global fight against corona. Because experts point this out again and again: Only when the virus is under control everywhere is the danger of escape mutations averted, i.e. of new types of viruses that overcome vaccination protection.

The fact that the Astrazeneca agent has stronger side effects than the competition is also no reason for experts to advise against it. The Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI), officially responsible for the safety of vaccines, comes to the conclusion in its current assessment that these vaccine reactions – from malaise to flu-like symptoms with fever – disappear after a few days. This usually reflects the body’s normal immune response. Some clinics and care facilities briefly paralyzed this vaccination reaction because everyone was vaccinated at the same time and then reported sick at the same time. But shortly afterwards, work continued as normal there too.

The vaccine specialists at the PEI come to a sober conclusion: “The Covid-19 vaccine from Astrazeneca is highly effective. In the majority of cases, it prevents Covid-19 disease or alleviates the symptoms in the case of illnesses. ”Before deciding whether to wait or resort to the British-Swedish vaccine, the recommendation of the experts in Langen, Hesse, is clear:“ From the expected protective effect benefits each and every vaccinated person. ”Because one thing is clear: For every non-vaccinated person, the protection is, logically, exactly 0 percent.

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